If the Hollywood writers’ strike turns primetime into nap time, viewers are going to get fed up, say media strategists. Some may drift to cable, online, DVDs or other entertainment platforms and possibly never return, further eroding network television as a viable marketing venue.

‘It’s already a supremely fragmented marketplace, with so much specialty and out-of-market tuning. This is just going to further mess it up,’ says Helena Shelton, SVP of broadcast operations at MBS/The Media Company.

Like many of her colleagues, Shelton doesn’t see ‘anything on the horizon’ indicating a quick end to the WGA walkout, now in its fourth week. Based on this, her agency is estimating an overall ratings loss of about 20%.

ZenithOptimedia president/CEO Sunni Boot is equally pessimistic, and sees the strike lasting into January or February — leading through the cold weeks, when Canadians are ‘in the mood to view’ — and into the first eight weeks of the spring season.

Game shows and reality are among the genres expected to fill the gap. But the reality is that replacement programming might not cut it for media planners and buyers in Canada, who are now questioning the plans they’ve drawn in advance for clients.

Boot’s company has issued a bulletin outlining concerns and areas likely to be affected, although no formal discussions with clients have yet been held regarding the potential effects of the strike on advertisers in Canada.

‘We made the deals we made because they were going to have the shows we thought they were going to have,’ she says. ‘Replacement shows may not have the same audience composition or characteristics as the original that I bought. This means we have to re-forecast our conventional buys, and that’s a big job. We haven’t done that yet because we don’t know what the replacement is.’

‘Each week, as a show comes up, we may find ourselves in the horrific situation of re-evaluating and making week-by-week decisions. This is not necessarily in anybody’s best interests, because you need to plan out,’ she adds. If the strike is prolonged, there will be serious resource implications. ‘It’s going to take tremendous manpower to steward and baby-sit this.’

Boot says it’s not a question of talent on the end of Canadian nets. She has a lot of faith in programmers in Canada and their efforts to match replacement programming. Her ‘fear is that there’s not enough available. ‘New shows take time to build. Audiences get used to seeing certain programs. It’s really the content that’s at issue. We want Desperate Housewives or House.’

From Media in Canada