Industry watchers are warning that Hollywood service work could be cut short this summer because of the high loonie – now trading at a 28-year high of 91 cents against the U.S. dollar – even as what looks to be a busy season of would-be blockbusters gets underway at studios in B.C. and Ontario.

B.C. is hosting nine U.S. pictures, including New Line’s Mimzi, starring Timothy Hutton, and the Ben Stiller/Robin Williams comedy Night at the Museum, both of which are underway at Lionsgate Studios.

‘We’re full here,’ says VP Peter Leitch.

The province is also hosting Twentieth Century Fox’s Fantastic Four 2, due to start in August, and the Ice Cube comedy Are We Done Yet? from Revolution Studios. The Danny de Vito/Matthew Broderick comedy All Lit Up, from New Regency and Fox, and the Paramount horror Case 39 with Renée Zellweger are also in prep.

In Toronto, the fantastical Mister Magorium’s Wonder Emporium, starring Dustin Hoffman and Natalie Portman, and the New Regency/Fox sci-fi feature Jumper are underway at Cinespace Film Studios. New Line’s Shoot ‘Em Up, starring Clive Owen and Monica Bellucci, the latest American Pie instalment The Naked Mile, and the horror sequel Saw 3 are also shooting or in prep.

But this first wave of shoots booked their space before the loonie’s most recent rally, raising concerns that a second, late-summer wave will avoid Canada.

Cinespace VP Jim Mirkopoulos notes the studio has some possible ‘holds’ but has not confirmed any Hollywood features for August. Not atypical for the business, he says, though he does expect the high dollar will cause ‘moderate’ fallout.

‘Do I expect some of those holds to fall away because of the dollar? Yes, I do. Do I expect some of the other ones to come through? Yes, I do,’ he says.

Leitch admits that Lionsgate also isn’t booked for the entire summer. ‘We’re not quite clear on what it’s going to look like going forward,’ he says. ‘And until things are booked, you never know. We hope [the dollar] doesn’t go up too much further. It’s high right now, so the market’s going to be a little tougher.’

‘It’s disastrous’ says producer Don Carmody (Silent Hill), less optimistic after seeing his latest project, the horror Sanctum, put into turnaround by Warner Bros. because of the loonie.

The dollar’s steady climb through the spring played havoc with efforts to keep Sanctum on budget, he says. ‘Every time we would make a cut in the script the goddamn dollar would go up and take it away. And we’re not a huge-budget picture. Every time it went up a penny it was another $120,000 for us.’

Carmody says he will try to do Sanctum as an independent feature with separate financing.

‘We’re concerned,’ agrees Rick Perotto, business rep for IATSE Local 667, which represents cinematographers. ‘Productions are saying, ‘We have to buy right now for August-September,’ but obviously they’re going to either delay, wait for [the dollar] to go down a bit, or they’re just going to make a decision and go elsewhere.’

ACTRA national executive director Stephen Waddell expects the impact to hit toward the end of the year, though ‘it could be as early as September,’ and is warning of potential job losses.

‘There’s just not enough money in the [Canadian] system to be able to replace those films. If we lose those films in the future, then there’s going to be mass unemployment in the industry,’ he says.

Montreal, meanwhile, is already taking a beating and hosting no Hollywood shoots, for the second summer in a row, due in part to the labor dispute between AQTIS and IASTE Local 514.

‘Until that situation is resolved, our big features – the majors – are staying away,’ says AQTIS president Céline Daigneault.

The crew unions blamed each other when Jumper abandoned its plans to shoot in Montreal. The city was also expected to host Night at the Museum, which Fox says it moved to B.C. to take advantage of tax credits on special effects.

Daniel Bissonnette, the city’s film commissioner, did not return calls for comment.

However, some American indie pictures are in town, including a 3D version of Journey to the Center of the Earth, based on the Jules Verne novel. Daigneault says, compared to last year, the indie work is ‘doing quite well.’

B.C. film commissioner Susan Croome maintains that her territory is headed for a ‘really robust year,’ but notes that studios and crews haven’t yet felt the impact of the 90-cent dollar.

‘We’re looking at [productions for] the front end of this year being very similar to last year. That being said, I don’t know where we will be in the fall,’ she says.

Croome says nine Hollywood features are confirmed for the summer and another seven are scouting.

‘We probably learned something from our downturn in 2004 that will probably serve us well as we face other competitive issues,’ she adds. B.C. and Ontario both hit slumps in ’04 that were offset the following year, at least in part, by improved tax credits.

Leitch says that Lionsgate will have to ‘sharpen our pencils’ and remain competitive by negotiating on a project-by-project basis, giving concessions and offering incentives where necessary.

Across the country, Mirkopoulos agrees that ‘every member of the industry’ – services, suppliers, unions – will have to ‘take a good hard look at our competitiveness and do our best to ensure that we’re still able to attract [business].’