Canadian over-the-top (OTT) subscription revenue grew 15% to $4.2 billion in 2024 and is forecast to leap another 15% to $4.85 billion, according to the annual Convergence Research Couch Potato Reports.

In 2027, the research firm expects that total to exceed annual TV subscription revenue. Last year, Convergence found the average Canadian subscription price increased 6% across the 10 leading OTT providers – and Convergence predicts 2025 is predicted to be higher. That said, OTT offers with advertising represent, on average, 39% less than similar offers without advertising.

‘The Battle for the Canadian Couch Potato: OTT and TV’ is based on analysis of more than 55 OTT services from more than 35 providers, led by Netflix.

First introduced in 2003, the report analyzes offers including prices and programming, deals and rights, strategy, subscriber and financial performance metrics – including forecasts – by company and market. In addition to Convergence analysis, sources include company interviews, annual and quarterly reports and presentations, CRTC and Statistics Canada data.

While OTT increased, Convergence Research reports a 2024 drop of four per cent for Canadian cable, satellite and Telco TV subscribers. Similar declines are expected through 2027. Canadian cable, satellite and Telco TV subscription revenue declined 5% to $6.51 billion in 2024 and 5% per annum declines on average are forecast through 2027.

The research company’s Canadian Cord Cutter/Never Household Model also estimated that by the end of 2024, 7.35 million Canadian households, or 46%, did not have a TV subscription with a cable, satellite or Telco TV access provider. That number is forecast to rise to 54%  by the end 2027.

Canadian TV subscribers and access revenue are currently not declining as steeply as in the U.S., but this could change if there are new or expanded OTT offers in Canada. Canadian TV access providers are also broadband providers and could also benefit from OTT.

Annual Canadian residential broadband revenue has more than doubled over the last decade. The years 2020 to 2024 were banner years for Canadian residential broadband subscriber additions. Convergence Research suggests that 2025 to 2027 will continue to see robust additions but they will not be as strong as the previous time period.

Last year’s report found that in 2023, Canadian OTT subscription revenue grew 14% to $3.73 billion and was forecast to grow another 14% to $4.24 billion in 2024. At the time, double-digit growth rates were expected to continue at least through 2026.

The Convergence Research Group is headquartered in Victoria, B.C.

This story originally appeared in Media in Canada

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