The cancellation of the Golden Globes this week has driven home the realization that the ongoing writers strike could jeopardize the big one — next month’s Academy Awards — and even threaten this spring’s upfront presentations.

While NBC moves forward with plans to air news-based programming to substitute for the 65th annual Golden Globes, media buyers who’d booked inventory for the Canadian broadcast on CTV can expect primetime on Jan. 13 to look like this: new eps of Amazing Race at 8 p.m., Medium at 9 p.m. and Law & Order: CI at 10 p.m. Of course, there is the possibility of Golden Globes-related programming on CTV’s news and entertainment shows, as well as on its A-Channels and specialties, but the fact is the real thing is gone — leaving some media buyers and planners with work to do.

ZenithOptimedia president/CEO Sunni Boot and VP broadcast investment Florence Ng aren’t just re-planning due to the Golden Globes cancellation. They’re bracing for the same problem with the Academy Awards, which could be jeopardized for similar reasons next month. While Ng does expect good audience ratings for Sunday’s Amazing Race (the last ep before the finale), there are aspects to awards shows for which accept-no-substitute thinking can apply.

‘We have purchased significant inventory in that [timeslot] to allow for the Golden Globes,’ says Boot. ‘However, for the sponsors of the Golden Globes, those dollars we’ve put on hold in the hope that the Globes will come back.’ It’s the same thing for the Oscars, she adds. ‘People buy the awards package. It’s a program genre that’s part of a client’s portfolio — a premium-priced, blue-chip stock.

‘It’s very hard to find a replacement for the Academy Awards or the Golden Globes, but not in terms of ratings,’ adds Boot. ‘If you’re a spot advertiser, you’re going to make up those ratings, and you’re even going to make them up in terms of audience composition. The problem is that you can’t replace the environment…You’re not going to get the glamour…We selected this in the first place because it fulfills a strong consumer need and a communications goal.’

Ng concurs: ‘In principle, we will work with the network to secure comparable replacements.’ But, she adds, ‘If no appropriate programming is available, we may have to consider re-investing the dollars elsewhere.’

OMD Toronto managing director Sherry O’Neil believes the Academy Awards and the U.S. network upfronts will be cancelled (and both Boot and Ng agree) — as development season is upon the industry and the ongoing strike threatens to create a lack of new pilots. The Oscars remain part of current media plans due to deals made months ago, but the situation is not looking good.

‘We did have clients that had specific investments set aside for the Golden Globes,’ says O’Neil, ‘so now we’re looking for alternative opportunities. I don’t know what those are at this point, but it looks like the money will stay in television and we’ll reinvest it elsewhere. With the Academy Awards [skedded for Feb. 24], I don’t know if the Academy would consider pushing them back into March or April, but I’d certainly welcome that, because we would prefer not to see them cancelled.’

Overall, O’Neil is not expecting a speedy resolution. ‘It would appear the strike is going to run for quite some time, because the broadcasters have not been affected really significantly from a revenue perspective, as they’ve had first-run material through the fall, December and into January and February. It’s going to take more for them to feel the pinch.’

O’Neil expects the U.S. studios will begin making announcements next week about exactly what product will be available, and says she won’t be surprised if the networks look to save money by getting out of the extravagance of the upfronts.

Boot says the cancellation of the upfronts is one of the biggest issues the writers strike has forced the industry to consider. Heading into development season in a few weeks with writers still on strike could, she says, accelerate perennial debate about whether there’s ‘an innovation’ or ‘a different timetable’ that should ultimately replace the upfronts. For years, on both sides of the border, Boot says media buyers and sellers have questioned ‘this artificial Sept. 1 run on the new season. Should it continue? I don’t know.’

If viewers do leave the TV set when the effects of the strike begin to show up in primetime, Boot believes they’ll be back. ‘At the end of the day, the curiosity and the seduction and enjoyment of good primetime television will remain. Will [viewers] find alternatives?

‘If you’re loving House, you’re not suddenly going to become enchanted with The Tudors and never watch House when it returns,’ Boot concludes. ‘We’ve been monitoring and gaining insights into viewing habits for years, and we just don’t think that’s going to happen.’

From Media in Canada