A written agreement should be in place between Quebec’s AQTIS and IATSE by Christmas, according to Quebec film commissioner Hans Fraikin, who says the former rivals are now getting along ‘famously.’

This time last year, Fraikin was working to mend a nasty labor squabble between the sparring technical unions.

This year, Fraikin is glad that war is over, and remains ‘cautiously optimistic’ about the province’s overall production scene.

Fraikin is fully aware that anxiety is running high among the entire Canadian film and TV community, given that Canada’s dollar is on a tear.

Ironically, the threat of the U.S. writers strike led to a surge – however short-lived – that Fraikin says has offset the more negative news about a stronger dollar.

‘The stronger dollar affects the entire export industry, whether it’s film, tourism or manufacturing,’ Fraikin says. ‘But producers [were] trying to get as much done before that [strike] as they could.’

Fraikin continues to watch the American scene very closely.

‘There’s a perfect storm brewing, in that as well as the writers union, both the American directors and actors unions are also due for renewal of their contracts,’ he says. ‘The worst-case scenario could be a bad one.’

Fraikin says he is also looking closely at the U.S. elections of November 2008.

‘There will be a new president elected, and with that could come new hope and a better economic outlook. That would mean that the U.S. dollar would rise in relation to ours,’ Fraikin notes.

But Fortner Anderson, business agent of the Quebec chapter of the Directors Guild of Canada, says he has ‘warned our members that next year could be very difficult.’

Citing everything from upcoming CRTC rulings to more favorable tax credits in places like Ontario and Nova Scotia, Anderson says he sees a possible downturn in the province.

‘Film and TV productions are very, very sensitive to things like more favorable regulation,’ says Anderson. ‘If it costs too much here, it’ll just push productions out of Montreal.’