Watching Global Television and CTV battle it out behind the scenes for the hearts and minds of Canadian TV viewers this last little while has been top-notch viewing – much better than the sorry summer fare on the tube these days. (Curmudgeonly harrumph.)

Their spending in L.A. has spiked as the catfight has escalated, with the two nets forking over 12% more for U.S. programming in 2006 than in the previous year. That’s $688.3 million spent on new and returning U.S. series. (Wouldn’t you just kill for a raise like that?)

Figures for this year are not yet available, but expenditures for new U.S. series alone have been estimated at $250 million. That’s a lot of Da Kink in My Hair and Corner Gas out the window in search of the next CSI.

The trouble is, that next bonanza is proving maddeningly elusive. Out of last year’s crop, Global’s Heroes, Shark and Brothers & Sisters are pretty much the only ones that have stuck around. CTV didn’t have a single new hit.

A look into the crystal ball says that this kind of spending is unlikely to continue. Okay, you don’t have to be a genius or a clairvoyant on this one – all you need is a calculator to divine that it simply can’t. The gamble is no longer paying off, as conventional television is suffering a fiscal slide in which, rather than being the wellspring of its continued success, that trek to L.A. has become a loss leader.

And it has to be treated as such.

Statistics Canada recently reported that revenue for the conventional channels remains flat, while expenses are climbing (mostly due to that U.S. programming spike, says the CRTC). All of this comes right off the bottom line of both Global and CTV. Profits were down a startling 62.5% in 2006 alone, to $90.9 million. This is the first time in 15 years that that segment has had a bottom line of less than $100 million.

You can call it a blip, but ratings trends seem to indicate otherwise, as viewers (and ad dollars) migrate to the fragmented world of specialty channels and turn to other platforms like the Internet. Even the U.S. networks are suffering a similar fate, with viewership dipping 5% in the first three weeks of daylight savings time, even for after-dark hits like Desperate Housewives and CSI. 

And with Rogers looking to rev up its newly acquired Citytv stations (pending regulatory approval), which threatens to further drive up prices at the L.A. screenings, there must be some thoughts of restraint being bandied about up there in the corner offices.

For once, Canadian producers need not worry about any changes, since they’re already nickeled and dimed six ways to Sunday.

Instead, Hollywood studios are likely to find the Canucks buying fewer – and cheaper – shows in the future, as they take less of a scattershot approach in favor of targeting more specific demographics – something Global’s already started to do with its younger-skewing E! programming like Bionic Woman or Caitlin’s Way. They may even find their biggest customers cutting back by taking more second-tier stuff, a strategy which served CHUM – if not well, then adequately.

Easier said than done, for sure. Call it a push from the U.S. studios or a pull to maintain ‘bench strength’ (aka: keep potential hits out of the other’s hands), but the top two nets have gotten into the habit of buying in bulk, with CTV dealing mostly with Warner Bros. and Disney/ABC (Pushing Daisies, Private Practice, Dirty Sexy Money, Big Shots) and CanWest with CBS Paramount, Sony and Fox (K-Ville, Cane, New Amsterdam, Back to You, Canterbury’s Law).

Once you’re used to super-sizing, it’s going to be tough on both parties to go back to just a single serving. Especially given that the U.S. studios are suffering a similar pinch. But however nasty that backroom battle gets, come next year, the buying is likely to be more selective, the lists shorter and the bottom line leaner.

Ironically, I don’t believe this will be at all apparent on-screen to the average viewer. Sure there will be less in the hopper when the inevitable cancellations come, but if and when pay dirt is struck in the U.S., if that something isn’t already airing in Canada, you can be sure it’ll be coming to the small screen tout de suite. It may be at a bidding war premium, but it’s got to be cheaper than buying the store.