John Gajdecki is president and CEO of GVFX, a Toronto- and Vancouver-based visual effects studio specializing in features, MOWs, TV series and commercials.

The bad news: Complex visual effects will continue to become a bigger and more integrated part of every production. We have not yet reached the day when we will shoot exclusively on a blue-screen stage, and I really hope that day never comes. Trust me, shooting blue screen all day, every day, is just not the thrill accountants think it is.

The need to learn more about the evolving processes and the changing equipment for visual effects is pretty important to maximize your production dollars.

The good news: NAB is coming to a desert casino and there’s a lot to see. If you are making the trip, it will probably do you some good to stop in at some of the geek booths and talk to the engineers, salespeople and even the other attendees about what’s going on. Production techniques will be changing over the next few years and this is where you will see it start.

What happened to HD?

HD did not catch on in video post like it was expected to, but to some this is no surprise. HD makes post more expensive, and producers in L.A. do not need another reason to make their product cost more and therefore send more work out of the city.

My focus this year will be on VCRs. Will Sony release decks with less compression? Not likely. Will Panasonic quash their reliability issues (were these rumors even true)? And will Voodoo come down in price? 24p is the way to go, and I want to see who offers the most for the least.

GVFX’s other focus will be on storage. You can never have enough storage, and storage area networks are all the rage. Unfortunately, they are very expensive for the amount of increased productivity that you receive, so don’t whip out your wallets just yet.

Is film dead?

‘Film is dead, long live film.’ Yeah, whatever. No one but the marketplace is going to have the answer, and the marketplace is just starting to shop. The big problem with HD as an acquisition medium is no self-respecting feature DOP or producer would ever say ‘acquisition medium.’ I can hardly write it.

But consider the facts. HD does not capture the full and subtle range of colors of a 35mm negative. However, it does capture the full and subtle range of colors in a release print, and that’s all the audience ever sees.

HD does not have the resolution of 35mm film, but it does have the 2K resolution of the 1.85 part of the camera neg, and looks great projected. No one will get up and walk out of a theatre projecting a feature shot or posted in HD. They won’t even know.

The low-budget film community is embracing HD faster than television producers and this makes perfect sense. A film with even a modest number of visual effects is cheaper to shoot and post digitally than on film, and I assure you it looks great. No one will walk out of a theatre because a film was shot digitally. They will walk out because of a story that doesn’t work, but effects technology can’t help with that.

Will HD change the way movies are made? No. Cinematographers will still shoot with a camera, choosing focal lengths and using lighting to tell the story, and they will use the same number of lights and grips stands, gaffers and grips. Editors will still cut on Avids (or their equivalent) and the lab will still process thousands of answer prints.

Am I shopping for HD cameras? No, Panavision and William F. White will continue to rent cameras like they always did and I will rent from them like I always have. I’ll rent from PS and Clairmont, too, as soon as Arri gets the gear, so drop by the Arri booth and give them shit if there is nothing new to see.

Live 3D animators

As 3D technology continues to assume a greater role in production, from the usual spaceships to undetectable set extensions and the creation of leading characters, it is important that you spend some time hovering around the booths, if only to figure out how to talk to real, live animators.

New this year is XSI v.1.5 from Softimage – its long-awaited overhaul intended to put it on top again. Check out the latest from Alias|Wavefront and see why Maya is still on top, and look at Side Effects Houdini, too. It’s harder to master than the others but has a lot more headroom when you’re getting into weird stuff. Check out 3ds max and LightWave as well. These are the programs most people start on and are more accessible for that reason. Their feature sets are becoming huge and the price point is way less than the big Canadian packages.

Also, troll the floor and look at the growing world of 3D peripherals, such as Puppet Works Face Works for lip sync (very cool) and the growing number of laser-based modeling tools to speed up model building and data acquisition on set. Faster data gathering on set means more money on screen.

As far as I’m concerned, Discreet is at the top of the 2D food chain. The software is great but very expensive, and they are making tremendous efforts to improve their service. They have cut storage prices to more responsible price points, but are tied to SGI boxes with slow processors. I do not expect to see any seriously cool new products shipping right away, but I’m looking for solid rumors of future greatness to keep us loyal for another year.

Check out Discreet Combustion, and try to find out what will be in 2.0. Look at the 3ds max/Combustion interoperability (which is cool except that it is not Maya), and look into Backdraft. Cool things are coming. Or so I’ve heard.

Tremor, from Nothing Real, is a high-end compositing solution that will be at the show for the first time. This year it will be bundled as a software and hardware package (with HP workstations only) to ensure solid reliability. This is a good move, as anyone who buys it will likely want to put it into production right away. Tremor is going after the Flame market and is significantly cheaper (we’ll wait and see what Discreet has to say about this), so it may make a good alternative to the higher-end options. However, being in its first model year, it will not be as full-featured as the competition. Its video resolution version is called Shake.

SGI boxes

When we picked up our first SGI box the processors were running at 150MHz and my desktop PC was clocking 33. Now SGI Irix boxes are shipping with 400MHz processors, and my desktop smokes along at over 1,000MHz. In fairness, SGI still has the killer bandwidth to make visual effects happen faster than any other solution, but this is now limited to 2D. As we know, 3D is not as bandwidth dependent and everyone has moved, or is moving, to Intel-based PCs. They also have the best reliability and service, which makes my clients happy, even when they tell me effects cost too much.

SGI purchased Integraph last year to secure a larger part of the Intel-based PC market, so it is on top again with the Zx10, and its new Onyx 3000 supports Irix, NT or Linux on both MIPs and Intel chips. It’s worth checking SGI out because the stuff is always very forward-thinking and looks cool.

‘My kid can do this on his Mac’

I’ve heard this one a few times over the years and it’s starting to be true. Your kid will probably miss the deadline and is not into doing revisions, but the idea of doing it on a Mac (or a smoking PC) is gaining a lot of ground.

In addition to Avid, look at Apple Final Cut Pro – it has lots of bells and whistles, but the support is not the same. Adobe After Effects is pretty cool, but it’s no Flame killer. Discreet has released Combustion, designed to be an After Effects killer. Wait and see what your kids are using at home.

Quantel is showing its iQ platform, and it sounds pretty hot. I’m interested in what it costs for the box, the storage and service. I also want to know if any software runs on it. I have a feeling most Discreet clients will use the iQ to beat up their Discreet resellers for better deals, and end up sticking with Discreet. But anyone new getting into the game should seriously check this out.

Fast networks

The winner of the effects wars will always be the shop with the best people, but having a fast network never hurt. Of the two current contenders, HIPPI is faster, but it’s expensive. Gigabit Ethernet (Gig E) is slower but cheaper. Nothing new here, but I have a feeling Gig E is catching on faster and more development dollars are going into this technology.

Networks are the future, but this is serious geek territory, so I won’t be upset if I don’t meet too many producers in the 3Com, HP and Cisco booths.

Did you notice all the slot machines are networked to control the gambling process? Did they go HIPPI or Gig E?

Shopping with the big boys

This will be a funny year for wheeling and dealing at NAB. With the threat of strikes many people will be holding on to their money more tightly than usual, but for that reason there will probably be really good deals to be had. I don’t know about you, but I’m bringing my cheque book. *

-www.gvfx.com