The film and TV business in this country is heading toward a potential crisis, with the coming months set to redefine the landscape in the most dramatic way since the CRTC unveiled its Television Policy back in 1999.

This has been the main topic of discussion at seemingly every industry event at this year’s Toronto International Film Festival, traditionally a time to extol the best of Canadian cinema. And while there has certainly been some celebration, producers, filmmakers and other stakeholders have also expressed plenty of frustration and fear.

It’s all to do with recent moves by the federal Conservatives, and the road ahead. Bringing the issue even more to the fore, on Day 4 of the festival, 400 kilometers to the east, Prime Minister Harper asked Governor General Michaëlle Jean to dissolve Parliament, paving the way for an Oct. 14 federal election. And nationwide polls find the Tories within reach of a majority government.

So, if the Conservatives, as minority leaders, have been holding back in their first term in office, just you wait.

And what exactly have the Tories been up to lately? Well, let’s recap. The recent bombshells began with the slashing of programs including the A-V Preservation Trust, the Canadian Independent Film and Video Fund, the National Training Schools Program, Trade Routes and PromArt.

Stakeholders were taken aback. Educational institutions NSI, the Canadian Film Centre and INIS wrote a response to Minister of Heritage Josée Verner decrying the elimination of the training stream. The program’s $2.5 million provided crucial funding to these organizations, while representing a mere drop in the bucket to the feds. According to these institutions, Heritage, which dropped the axe, recently gave them all passing grades in an evaluation report.

Losing a chunk of your operating budget is devastating. For its part, the CFC can breathe a little easier after the announcement at its annual TIFF barbecue that the Ontario Liberals had stepped up with $2.5 million in new funding for the center. Good on the provincial government to be proactive. At an earlier OMDC party, Ontario Minister of Culture Aileen Carroll stated that so much more could be done for the film and TV industries in the province if only she had better partners in Ottawa.

Meanwhile, a number of prodcos will confirm that they were able to attend out-of-country events and sell their shows to foreign territories only because of the support of TradeRoutes.

So, why cancel these programs?

A government website explains simply that the feds will only support programs ‘that are efficient and effective and that meet the priorities of Canadians.’

Following all this news, some nervous Nellies out there might very well have said, ‘What next, the Canada New Media Fund?’

That would just be ridiculous, right? Digital media is the future, right? Well…

An Aug. 30 front-page story in The Globe and Mail stated that the Tories were indeed planning on scrapping the CNMF. Heritage was quick to tell Playback, however, that it had made no such decision, although a spokesperson did acknowledge the possibility.

Now, it’s entirely possible that the Tories could have some form of replacement in mind if the CNMF were indeed slated to go, but until we hear of something concrete, it’s hard to not live in dread.

The Tories are campaigning on a platform of steadiness in a time of global economic uncertainty. Harper, upon announcing the impending election, said voters would choose ‘between common sense or risky experiments.’ So, after having already embarked upon cuts in the production sector, if the Conservatives did get that majority, would they not see that as a green light to just keep slashing away?

All of a sudden, thoughts such as ‘What next, the Canadian Television Fund?’ don’t seem so unreasonable. Heritage has been in no rush to respond to the CRTC’s proposals regarding the CTF, unveiled nearly four months ago. At the time, what the regulator suggested – the split of the fund into separate commercial and cultural streams – seemed like an attempt to appease the most conservative of private-sector stakeholders.

But now, the prospect of what the Tories might do to the CTF, given their slash-happy ways of late, are too grim to contemplate.

And even if what they do amounts to altering the fund, some familiar with the inner workings of the CTF believe that by the time Heritage comes out with its verdict on the CTF – which we know won’t happen anytime soon given the looming election – it would not be able to put its changes into play and secure the federal contribution to the fund by the time the CTF is up for renewal in March 2009.

As of this writing, it looks all but certain the Conservatives will remain in power. If that’s the case, this industry could find itself in a fight for its life. It’s up to the stakeholders to get out there and make their case to the Canadian public like never before – and in a very short period of time. And if the new boss turns out to be the same as the old boss, then the industry will need to be more effective in making Ottawa listen.