VANCOUVER — The threat of a Screen Actors Guild strike has slowed service production across the country, though the rise of rival union AFTRA stands to cushion the blow if U.S. actors walk out in 2009.

Attempts at mediation between SAG and the AMPTP broke down last week and the union has called for a strike authorization vote, meaning a walkout could occur as early as mid-January, putting a cloud over Canada’s service industry and the upcoming pilot season.

But a walkout by actors — though unwelcome given the already sorry state of the service industry — is not expected to have as wide an effect as last year’s Writers Guild of America strike, largely because an increasing number of projects have signed with the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists, which has ratified a deal with the studios.

The CBS series Harper’s Island and CW’s Reaper, both of which shoot in Vancouver, are AFTRA shows, as is the new Omni Film/Fox TV Studios drama series Defying Gravity, which begins production in January.

Traditionally, SAG covers film projects and AFTRA does TV. The unions have dual jurisdiction over digital projects. As more projects shoot on HD — and the SAG impasse continues — the studios are choosing to work with AFTRA.

‘SAG is losing jurisdictions by the bucket loads,’ says Crawford Hawkins, head of the Directors Guild of Canada B.C. District Council. ‘The studios are saying they will do their pilots under AFTRA in the new year and, if that happens, SAG will find themselves with jurisdiction over features only.’

SAG officials say the union might not strike even if its members approve a strike vote.

As well, Vancouver studios point out that large shows with long construction builds may begin preproduction even if a strike is imminent, assuming that a labor stoppage will be resolved by the time they are ready to shoot. Smaller-budget independent movies will also likely be able to sign waivers with SAG.

‘It is hard to say what the impact of a strike will be,’ says Gerry Rutherford of Vancouver Film Studios. ‘If you have a couple AFTRA shows going you will be okay, but if you are relying only on high-budget feature films, that is a different issue.’

‘The B.C. industry is pretty well diversified with Canadian shows and non-SAG productions done under the AFTRA contract. The infrastructure can withstand a bit of a hit,’ he says.

Rutherford adds that the impact of the WGA strike hasn’t been forgotten and this, combined with the current American financial woes, is a strong deterrent against a walkout.

‘From what I can tell, the tenor in the U.S. is there is a lot of fear about the economy,’ he says. ‘So while this may be the right issue, it is the wrong time to strike.’

Vancouver studios report that they have been busy throughout the summer and fall with several big movies: Sony’s Farewell Atlantis, which is said to be budgeted at around $200 million, 20th Century Fox’s Tooth Fairy, and Warner Bros.’ Cats & Dogs 2, all of which have wrapped or are in the process of completing production.

However, the ongoing SAG issue is having an ‘unsettling effect on our business here,’ says Hawkins. ‘We are off a good 20% from last year [in terms of volume of work], which was 20% off from the year before that.’

Likewise, Ontario is in a ‘holding pattern,’ says Donna Zuchlinski of the Ontario Media Development Corporation, though Universal’s Scott Pilgrim vs. the World has opened an office in Toronto and will shoot in March. The next installment in the Saw franchise will also shoot this spring, adds Zuchlinski.

She says the recent lowering in value of the Canadian dollar ‘has the phones ringing again, but not a lot is moving forward.’