The wall of money unleashed by the CRTC’s new group licensing regime from private broadcasters will produce a funding stream for indie TV producers through 2016.

That was the word Thursday from industry veteran Peter Grant, who told the Prime Time conference in Ottawa that the next five years will see an increase in expenditures by private broadcasters on independently produced English language programs of national interest (PNI).

“PNI is the mother’s milk of indie production,” Grant told the Prime Time conference, and not all of it will come from the CBC.

Before the 2011 license renewal hearings, actual expenditures by broadcasters on Canadian English language TV dramas were down between 2008 and 2010, in part due to the economic recession and its impact on ad revenue.

That reduction was across the board, for the CBC and private sector rival broadcasters, Grant reported.

But a forecast of expenditures by broadcasters on Canadian English-language programs of national interest, including drama, long-form docs and national award shows for the 2012-2016 period, reveals rising investment during their current license terms.

Grant argued private broadcasters won concessions from the CRTC during the recent license renewal hearings, and Rogers Media “dodged a bullet.”

At the same time, indie producers won important victories of their own after the CRTC set PNI expenditure targets, including 5% each for lead financial backers Bell Media and Shaw Media.

Bell Media, for example, is forecast to spend $87.4 million in 2012, $89.2 million in 2013, and $102 million in 2014, according to Grant’s calculations.

Shaw Media is estimated to spend $53.5 million on PNI shows in 2012, moving up to $60.5 million in 2014 and a high-water mark of $71.9 million in 2016.

Over at Astral Media, PNI program expenditures are forecast to climb from $32.8 million in 2012 to $39.2 million in 2016.

And rival Corus Entertainment is estimated to be spending $34.8 million in 2012, climbing to $41.6 million in 2016.

Private broadcasters on Thursday grumbled over Grant’s methodology, insisting his calculations combined the proceeds of tangible benefit packages with PNI obligations.

But they accepted Grant was attempting to signal to indie producers at Prime Time that the regulatory obligations of private broadcasters stood to help them survive and thrive with added indie production through current and mounting industry challenges.

For the CBC, much depends on the upcoming federal budget impact.

But Grant did his own calculations and forecast $74.7 million from the pubcaster for PNI programming for each of the next five years to 2016.

The upshot is PNI expenditures by the CBC and private broadcasters are expected to climb from $290.3 million in 2012 to $329 million in 2016.

And most of it is private broadcast investment, driven by regulatory demands, that has helped to head off a funding crunch for indie TV production that threatens severe strain for major producers.

At the same time, while the PNI expenditures have bought time for indie producers to adjust to a rapidly changing TV business, there were warnings that the wall of money projected into the future could crumble if the Canadian regulatory climate no longer favors indie production.

Grant said indie producers and other industry groups need to be vigilant that the major broadcasters don’t force a future CRTC to reduce the PNI targets, or ease or scrap altogether the tangible benefits obligations that flow from industry takeovers.

The Prime Time conference in Ottawa wraps on Friday.