While still basking in schedule launch party warmth, the fun for media buying and planning professionals is just beginning as a season of new ad placement options and reasonable rate increases lies ahead.

While u.s. advertising rates will increase significantly for the 1997 season, with top-rated shows estimated to cost as much as 15% more than last year, Canadian media buyers forecast a smaller rate jump here.

Media shops are currently in the thr’es of planning and buying for the upcoming season and are still in negotiation with most broadcasters toward putting agency or client deals together. At this point, most forecast an overall average increase in the cost per reaching a thousand viewers from negligible to 3% to 5%.

Hugh Dow, head of Toronto’s Initiative Media, says it’s hard to pinpoint a flat increase because of the high degree of negotiability between buyers and broadcasters.

Terry Sheehy, senior vp, media director at Leo Burnett in Toronto, says it’s unlikely there will be a pent-up demand to match the available supply of airtime. ‘It augurs well for buyers,’ says Sheehy.

Young & Rubicam senior vp, national media director Bruce Grondin points to Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton as markets which have posted a steeper increase in ad rates due to a shortfall in inventory. With new stations in each market, that scenario may change.

The buying landscape will also be altered by the arrival of the newly licensed specialty channels. While it’s too early to forecast what percentage of ad spending will be diverted to the new services, media buyers are looking enthusiastically to new targeted advertising vehicles. Like most consulted, Grondin estimates his agency spends between 7% and 10% of total ad budgets on existing specialties but has so far has made no dollar commitments to new ones.

Buyers are still looking for confirmation of carriage.

‘The key criteria of buying (new specialties) is what national penetration levels will be and how that will break out regionally,’ says Sheehy.

In terms of specialties on the whole, Dow says the services are an efficient option for advertisers. ‘They are very efficient compared to conventional tv, but perhaps more importantly they are very enthusiastic about promotions, breaking new ground and building an advertising presence into a show.’

A study pulled together by Initiative Media chronicles the growth of the specialties’ popularity among viewers. In 1989, Canadian specialties garnered 5% of total viewership, with average weekly hours tuned at about 23.4. Canadian ‘conventional’ tv made up 69% of that pie, while u.s. conventional and specialty services, vcrs and others made up the rest.

By 1995, Canadian specialties had earned 10% of total viewing and u.s. specialty viewing was up from 1% to 4% of the total, with Canadian conventional channels at 64%.

Initiative Media forecasts that by 2000, Canadian specialties will have captured about 18% of viewing, with average weekly hours tuned up to 23.7. Projections also include the Internet, which with the advent of Internet tv will capture 2% of viewing, and pay-per-view on cable and dth, which is estimated at 3% of the total. Canadian conventional tv viewing is estimated at 54%, u.s. conventional at 12%, u.s. specialties at 6%, vcrs at 4% and others comprising 1%.