Vancouver: Now that Shaw seems to have taken control of wic’s shareholder base, speculation focuses on the potential fallout – specifically, who will own Vancouver’s private television stations.

As it stands, wic owns market-dominating bctv and Vancouver Island station chek, which compete in the same market. CanWest owns Global Vancouver and Baton owns upstart vtv. Complicating the market ownership, however, are some federal rules, inter-rival contracts and intense interest from broadcasters outside b.c.

For starters, the crtc, doesn’t generally allow one broadcaster to own two television licences in the same market, but has turned a blind eye to wic’s steadfast refusal to sell either bctv or chek, and has made exceptions to the rule (chum’s Citytv and The New vr in Ontario, for example.)

Baton, meanwhile, has a right of first refusal to buy bctv should it be put on the block. Baton, though, owns vtv in the Vancouver market, allowing it a chance to swap stations.

And then there are the long-standing and determined efforts of chum to enter the Vancouver market and the more recent attempts by Craig Broadcasting to do the same.

Potential scenarios

What if Shaw does what some analysts predict and actually gets out of the national conventional television business it has just acquired from wic?

That means wic’s nine television stations will be up for grabs, perhaps solving long-suffering CanWest’s troubles in collecting its Alberta stations.

In b.c., chaos reigns. bctv goes up for sale and Baton chooses to exercise its option to buy that station because bctv already has an established ctv affiliation and comes with the cash cow NewsHour.

The crtc, flexing its regulatory muscle, enforces the one-station-per-market rule.

The rather City-looking vtv – being a better fit with chum than with Baton’s conservative ctv network – is absorbed by Moses Znaimer and company, who continue vtv’s commitment to independent production.

At the same time, eager Craig buys chek, changing its name to V-Channel.

Except for Rogers Broadcasting, this scenario takes care of all the recent applicants involved in the race for a new Vancouver licence in 1996/97.

Rogers remains the dark horse, because CanWest, thrilled with picking up itv in Edmonton, rdtv in Red Deer, cisa in Lethbridge and Calgary 7 makes no trouble in the Vancouver switcheroo.

How does that scenario play with the players? Not surprisingly, they have little to say, citing the need to keep strategy private and, in the cases of Baton and Cathton, that they don’t speculate. Others like Shaw and Craig just didn’t return calls.

Tom Strike, executive vp at CanWest, says only that CanWest and Shaw will have to negotiate. ‘We’re one of two very large shareholders in this company,’ he says.

‘It would be like [for Shaw] ignoring an elephant in your bed. We’re going to sit down and discuss how to enhance our investment.’

Meanwhile, Mark Rubinstein, chum’s vp and gm says: ‘We’ve said publicly that a priority for chum is to have a station in the Vancouver market. If a station were offered for sale, would we look at it, absolutely.’

And when apprised of Playback’s prognostication in which chum buys vtv, Rubinstein says with a laugh, ‘From your lips to God’s ears.’

Tony Viner, president and ceo at Rogers Broadcasting, agrees that his company is a long-shot in a Vancouver station acquisition. ‘But we would certainly look at it,’ he quickly adds.

‘Our interest continues to be in multicultural broadcasting. Other broadcasters may be able to achieve synergies that we may not.’

At wic, meanwhile, it’s business as usual, says spokesman Terry O’Donovan. ‘We’re just going to focus on our core business and service our new shareholders,’ he says.

Business particulars still on the table include the lawsuit pertaining to whether the infamous coattail provisions convert Class b non-voting shares to voting shares go in CanWest’s favor, making wic (with 51%) and CanWest (with 46%) the two major equity and controlling shareholders.

Even if the coattail provisions are not triggered, Shaw owns (with Cathton Holdings of Edmonton) 49.9% of the controlling Class a shares.