Vancouver: The Canadian film industry may not want to ‘paint the devil on the wall’ and speculate about the fallout from potential U.S. labor disruptions this summer, but most are now bracing for a dramatic downturn in business.

Across the country, the outlook is pessimistic that American members of the Screen Actors Guild and Writers Guild of America will ratify new contracts in time to avoid picket lines and work stoppages. And there is little confidence that Canada’s domestic industry will be able to fill the void to any positive effect.

‘The strike is going to be long,’ predicts Paul Harding, president of IATSE Local 873 in Toronto. ‘We’ll see a terrific amount of unemployment. We hope we’re wrong.’

‘I have 75 people, a lot of overhead and I depend on the U.S. business,’ says industry supplier Jim Westwell, president of Vancouver payroll company TVD Televector. ‘We’re projecting a 20% drop in business. Essentially, July and August are gone. We’re all going to hurt.’

In a practical sense, a U.S. work stoppage will be the first real test of the ability of Canada’s extensive production infrastructure to stand on its own. Companies that have little debt should fare okay, though with much less cash in their pockets. Companies (and for that matter individual film workers) that are overly burdened with debt may find it more difficult to sustain their payments and keep creditors from their doors.

Unions face troubling times

Unions, in particular, may be hard hit. Up to 90% of the business done by Teamsters Local 155 in Vancouver is U.S.-based. IATSE Local 891, with 4,200 members in Vancouver, reports that up to 70% of its volume is U.S.-based and therefore strike-prone.

‘We expect a one- or two-month slowdown even if there is no strike,’ says Elmar Theissen, business agent at Local 891.

He says an extraordinary planning meeting this month will review strategies in the event of a protracted strike, including arranging loans for members and transferring funds to sustain health and welfare benefits. The 30 office staff may suffer layoffs, though with the union doubling in membership over the past two years, Theissen says the slowdown may be a chance to catch up and deal with the overload.

Film technicians such as electricians and construction personnel have portable skills that may support them if the strike carries on, adds Theissen. Everyone is being encouraged to save money.

At Vancouver’s 3,500-member Union of BC Performers, meanwhile, 80% of revenues are derived from U.S. productions while 70% of the jobs are generated by American shows.

‘We’re telling members to hope for the best and plan for the worst – something Canadian actors are very used to anyway,’ says Alex Taylor, UBCP’s director of collective bargaining.

Few actors able to greenlight production and drive distribution are booking beyond the June 30 deadline when the SAG contract expires, adds Taylor, suggesting there will be a lag in local production whether or not U.S. actors walk a picket.

Actor should work – but may not

UBCP and ACTRA have master collective agreements in place that require members to report to work for producers that are signatory to the IPAs.

‘We have a collective agreement in place and we recommend our members go to work,’ says Taylor at UBCP.

But for producers wanting to work in Canada but not already signatory to the IPAs before the actors strike in the U.S., it’s likely the Canadian unions will consider that production as struck production – work that is trying to avoid a U.S. strike.

‘We support our sister unions,’ says Stephen Waddell, national executive director of ACTRA.

But what constitutes struck work? ‘We will look at each production on a production-by-production basis,’ says Waddell, declining to define the criteria that would be used to assess a project’s status.

The unions, also, have no control over what individual members might do.

Only about 5% of UBCP members, for example, also have SAG cards. There is a possibility that production in Canada might attract demonstrations as happened at some commercial production sets during last year’s commercial actors dispute. Also, the unions have no way to protect Canadian actors from the stigma of being considered replacement workers by their U.S. brethren.

‘We have no control over how people south of the 49th parallel perceive the industry here,’ says Taylor.

Ilyanne Kichaven, a spokesperson for SAG, confirms that SAG members who are non-U.S. citizens may be able to work in a foreign production that is shot outside of the U.S. without any U.S. presales. This policy, while under review, could be a boon for non-U.S. marquee actors who don’t mind negotiating the thorny politics in Hollywood for their decision to work during a strike.

‘We believe a deal can still be made and ratified before June 30,’ says Kichaven.

Service producers at greater risk

Canadian producers, meanwhile, are in varying degrees of alarm about a potential strike.

Purely domestic producers are among the only people in Canada to see a silver lining in the work slowdown. The immediate benefit will be the access to A-list crew, facilities and equipment normally reserved for the high-paying U.S. productions. The longer the strike, the more downward pressure there will be on rates for workers, equipment and locations.

‘Movies that are smaller, with Canadian cast and crew, may see that there’s more willingness on the part of investors to get involved,’ says New Waterford Girl producer Julia Sereny of Toronto’s Sienna Films. ‘It might be advantageous to the Canadian producer [because] more people are around that are available to work at rates more accommodating to Canadian producers.’

Then again, most of the larger-budget films still need marquee SAG actors to be greenlit, says Sereny.

At Winnipeg-based Credo Entertainment, meanwhile, the strategy will be to focus on Canadian-content production and factual programming in the vein of Pioneer Quest and The World’s Greatest Spas, says president Derek Mazur.

Domestic producers with shows designed to appeal to international markets are less clear about the effects on them.

‘All of our propriety shows such as Big Sound, The Immortal and First Wave should continue [if renewed],’ says Juliet Jones, CFO at Vancouver’s Peace Arch Entertainment. ‘Although we don’t know anything for sure. We are seeking legal advice.’

Like other SAG members working in Vancouver, Lorenzo Lamas, star of The Immortal, is contracted through the Union of BC Performers and expects to work on another season if the European coproduction series goes ahead with a second season, says Jones.

She adds Canadian producers of television may see opportunities to supply U.S. networks in the event the strike continues over time. ‘We have a library of original programming and we are talking to U.S. networks,’ says Jones.

Producers with a mix of service and domestic production are preparing themselves for a drop in business commensurate with their dependence on the U.S. trade.

Kevin DeWalt, CEO of Minds Eye Pictures in Regina, says about 80% of his slate of production is Canadian and therefore strike-proof.

‘We’re focussing our year on Canadian production and ongoing Canadian series,’ says DeWalt, including Minds Eye shows such as Mentors (Family Channel), Incredible Story Studio (YTV), Mythquest (CBC, Showcase, PBS) and the new kids series AD 2030 (YTV).

In the meantime, he’s doing a 35-day shoot on the American independent feature Without a Word, starring Patrick Swayze, before the strike deadline.

Halifax’s imX communications normally does one or two American coproductions per year (like the recent Katherine Bigelow feature Weight of Water), so president Chris Zimmer doesn’t project a big negative impact to his bottom line in the event of a strike.

His five-digital feature package Seats 3a & 3c is a European coproduction and a new $8-million animated feature is an Irish copro.

Most vulnerable to a strike are service companies such as Dufferin Gate’s Vancouver office, which does 100% service production for Showtime. Normally five MOWs are produced over the course of a year, but this year the office will have done that volume before the end of June.

Producer Rose Lam says the company has been doing double duty in order to get shows in the can before the strike deadlines. The summer will be quiet if there is a strike, she admits, though Dufferin Gate will still be a going concern in Vancouver. It’s premature, she says, to project what might happen if the strike is protracted, and in the event there is no strike, the company will have capacity for more production and a banner year.

Suppliers are the

innocent bystanders

Suppliers to the industry are also battening the hatches. Smaller talent agents in Vancouver, for instance, are planning to load up on non-union talent in order to service the non-union market.

‘If I had more non-union talent I would not be as concerned as I am [about a strike],’ says Deborah Harry, who runs her own small agency in Vancouver. ‘My actors that are both SAG and UBCP will be restricted to unionized Canadian productions only.’ Non-union actors, on the other hand, can audition for anything.

‘Indigenous film won’t carry us through the season [and] if there is a strike, we’re in for a rough ride,’ says Kathy Carpenter, an agent at Vancouver’s Kirk Talent. ‘I encourage the actors not to become UBCP. They can make more money at this point as non-union actors.’

Bob Scarabelli, president at post-production house Rainmaker Entertainment, is also projecting a slowdown since about 60% of his business is service-based.

We want to keep staff in-house and avoid layoffs, but that is dependent on the length of a strike.’

Scarabelli says Rainmaker is diversifying its service work to include interactive television and sports programming. He’s also offering incentives to Canadian producers to secure their post work over the summer.

And Peter Leitch, VP and GM of Lions Gate Studios in North Vancouver, says five of his seven stages are filled with work that will be affected by a U.S. strike. Mysterious Ways, a Lions Gate series, is considered strike-proof, he says, because of its Canadian status.

Most series hold their stages over a hiatus period, which means there may not be an immediate hit on studio revenues. ‘But a long, drawn-out strike will have a negative impact,’ he admits. ‘Our doors are wide open to Canadian shows if there is space available.’ *

WITH files from ELIZABETH LEVINE and SAMANTHA YAFFE.

-www.telefilm.gc.ca