He is the best man who, when making his plans, fears and reflects on everything that can happen to him, but in the moment of action is bold.

– Herodotus

Commercial production is experiencing what can best be described as a paradigm shift.

The factors have been well documented, so we’ll only touch on them briefly here.

The key is that it is during times such as these that true winners emerge. Those producers who take risks, continue to be fleet of foot and are able to crystal ball months, even years, into the future have a marvelous opportunity.

As one executive producer recently pointed out, it was during the recession of the 1980s that his prodco – today one of the larger ones in Canada – made major strides because of a willingness to take on what the competition refused. That included shooting piddly little projects that other producers scoffed at.

While there may, or may not be a recession in Canada, it is a time when the industry is being hit on several fronts.

Technology has allowed the personal video recorder to emerge as a credible threat because it empowers consumers to zap past commercials or avoid them completely. Not only do we have TiVo and ReplayTV, out of the U.S., but Bell ExpressVu has also announced the launch of its own PVR. (Why the owner of a national network would invest in technology that can kill ad revenue is another issue, altogether.)

At the same time, Bell, through it’s Bell Globemedia division, along with CanWest Global and Corus Entertainment, is involved in a series of convergence projects which could cut into broadcast media spends and additionally stifle commercial production.

Meanwhile, even if it’s not a recession, the economy has seen healthier times. U.S. producers continue to feel the brunt of the pain as illustrated by the folding of Propaganda Films and MTV’s commercial production division earlier this month.

Add to this the demands of some U.S. advertisers to take ad production back to the U.S. – this despite a falling Canadian dollar that seems affected by all forces including gravity – and you’ve got an industry that is, to put it mildly, shell-shocked.

‘Everything is threatening right now. Just day-to-day living is a threat to commercial production houses and how we do business,’ says Christina Ford, president of Imported Artists in Toronto.

‘I think production houses have got to be smarter and they have to be aware of what is going on within the realm of things. You have to look forward and sideways.’

It is a point that every commercial producer appears to be acutely aware of.

But the instinct for survival leads us to bold action. Commercial production is no exception. Everyone, it seems, has a plan, be it expanding into features, corporate video, Web-based services or producing branded series. Likely some of the most innovative initiatives have yet to emerge publicly.

In the end, two things are certain: First, virtually no one is sitting this one out. Second, the industry of next year will look not much like the industry of last.