So, they say the recession is over. And we barely felt it.
Well, some barely felt it. Commercial production felt it, big time.
Much of Canada managed to ride out the reports of downturn with some simple belt-tightening and by cutting some of the fat accumulated through what was one of the longest sustained boom periods in North America.
Likewise, no commercial producers fell under the weight off our mighty American neighbor’s plummeting economy (despite the incessant rumors that some were about to close shop). But they felt the drop more than most.
As we point out in our cover story, commercial production is inextricably tied to the vibrancy of the U.S. market. Judging by the parallel ups and downs, if your eye was on the production sector alone, you’d think we were indeed the 51st state as so many like to claim.
Commercial production in Canada was built on a tradition of tariff protection, which was our dominant national economic policy for a century before free trade. If one wanted to communicate, sell or do business in Canada, one needed to either set up shop north of the border or pay on the way in.
Since free trade, we’ve benefitted from a dropping dollar, one that makes U.S. production coming north a smart business move rather than a necessary one.
There is an irony that spot production is linked so closely to the vagaries of the U.S. economy while the major reason the Yanks keep coming north is for the single greatest symbol of our sovereignty, the loonie.
Imagine what would happen to commercial production if Canada was to peg the dollar to that of the U.S., as some pundits insist we must to maintain a healthy economy. The impact would be devastating.
While there are no hard numbers, U.S. production is estimated to account for up to 40% of total commercial production volume in Canada. How much of that comes north for the dollar? Plenty.
Tim Turner, executive producer at Circle Productions, believes dollar parity means that English Canada’s production centres Vancouver and Toronto ‘would become effectively just two other American cities you could shoot in,’ like, say, Minnesota or Cleveland.
‘It’s really driven by economics first. Locations, good crews and everything else are a bonus tied into that.’
The fact is, too, that few in the industry have a contingency.
Still, Turner says, the idea of tying the two North American currencies together remains farfetched. So many sectors depend on exports to the U.S. that such a move could have far-reaching effects across the economy.
Maybe so. There is certainly no significant groundswell behind the idea.
But who would have believed that free trade would fly before the Mulroney Conservatives floated the idea following the 1984 election. And imagine if the Euro begins to exhibit significant influence on a boom to the economies of European Union countries.
Proponents – (read, National Post columnists) – remain adamant that pegging the dollar would improve productivity in Canada and create a healthier economy, not to mention a higher standard of living, in the long run.
But in the short run, we would see a lot of spot shops looking to significantly diversify – right out of the production business. Tying the loonie to the Yankee greenback would be a coup de grace for many.