For the past five years, the prevailing wisdom has been that by 2006/07, U.S. broadcasters would have switched over to digital television, and Canadian ‘casters would follow 18 to 24 months thereafter. But today, the North American Broadcasters Association is pushing that forecast by up to six years.

‘It will not be 2007,’ says Michael McEwen, NABA secretary general. ‘I would say that 2010 isn’t an outrageous date, and 2012 is likely.’

According to McEwen, the original deadline, for which the U.S. Federal Communications Commission had American broadcasters sign up back in 1998, was unrealistic, and it has no doubt been further put out of reach by the economic hardships of the past couple of years. Yet McEwen defends the progress of North American broadcasters, several of whom his organization represents.

He points to nearly 1,600 private and public stations in the U.S. now transmitting digitally, and a consumer base that is ready and willing. Research indicates that TV sets that play high-definition, the widescreen high end of DTV, have the fastest take-up rates of any consumer electronic device, surpassing even CDs and DVDs. There are seven million HD display units in the U.S.; in Canada, there are 800,000 HD-enabled displays, but only 40,000 set-top boxes that receive the HD signal.

Nonetheless, McEwen notes that color TV was available as early as 1954, but did not become ubiquitous until the early 1970s.

‘This is a much bigger leap of faith,’ he adds. ‘You’re not talking about a gadget – you’re talking about a whole system change, and that, in the economic business terms of the industry, is huge. The reality of getting the capital, getting the resources, getting the programs, getting the viewer/consumer to understand that and see and understand the benefits takes a while.’

McEwen sees Canada on track or better in terms of its planned timeframe to follow the U.S. He monitors that progress closely in his other role as president and CEO of Canadian Digital Television, a group formed to help guide the transition to digital TV in Canada.

‘CTV’s got their licence applications in, as have Global, Toronto 1 and CBC,’ he says. ‘Although our rollout was slower to begin, we’ll accelerate. As the American system reaches maturity, we’ll want to reach maturity as well.’

NABA (pronounced nay-ba) was founded in 1972 by CBC, CTV, the U.S.’s big three nets of the day, and was joined later by Grupo Televisa of Mexico. The offices were set up in Ottawa – due primarily to the Americans’ concern over antitrust rules – but in 1995/96 it was decided NABA should be closer to broadcast players than bureaucrats, so it moved to Toronto. NABA’s present office is in the Toronto headquarters of CBC, one of the chief broadcasters it continues to represent, along with French-language sister SRC.

CTV and ABC are not currently in the fold, however. CTV left just as McEwen was assuming his present post in 2001 (he was NABA chair and president from 1990 to 1996). McEwen, who himself spent 27 years at the CBC, taking on various executive roles, explains that membership in NABA comes down to having a champion in a high place at a broadcaster. In the case of CTV, that was Bruce Cowie, former CTV exec VP and COO, who was also NABA board president. When Cowie left, CTV’s involvement trailed off.

McEwen says he has had subsequent talks with CTV president Rick Brace about the net coming back. CTV’s input would be particularly valuable in light of its recent experiences launching the HD simulcast of some of its programming last month in the Toronto region.

‘We worked hard over the last couple of years to demonstrate value,’ McEwen says. ‘I’m hopeful.’

Unlike the national, private-sector focused Canadian Association of Broadcasters, itself an associate member, NABA is an organization in which public and private broadcasters and related interests come together to share business concerns beyond their national boundaries. As McEwen puts it, ‘We represent the interests of North America outside the confines of North America.’

The primary issues NABA addresses through its task forces, committees and seminars include HD transmission and production standards and digital piracy.

Other full members include Fox, TBS/CNN, Warner, U.S. funder Corporation for Public Broadcasting, and Mexico’s TV Azteca. Bell ExpressVu and CanWest Global are associate members, while BCE-owned satellite communications company Telesat, Ontario-based broadcast solutions firm Larcan, and Montreal transmissions technology firm Invidex are affiliate members.

Fees depend on level of membership. Members also provide substantial services in kind, such as Fox’s hosting of NABA’s 2004 meeting, slated for Feb. 22-24 in Los Angeles.

Also conspicuously absent is Alliance Atlantis, which was a full member but bolted after one year.

‘They’re not a major national network,’ McEwen explains. ‘I don’t know whether they felt a little burned being a full member. I’d love to get them back as an associate member, because I think that with their big specialty services and production-based television interests, NABA would benefit from them, and I think they would benefit from NABA.’

CHUM, Craig and Quebec’s regional players also do not sit at the NABA table. McEwen explains that their focus is currently too rooted in Canada, although there are signs that is changing, at least in the case of CHUM, which McEwen thinks would make a good associate member.

For the annual meeting, NABA staffers are currently organizing seminars on topics including digital theatrical projection, the pros and cons of digital distribution, piracy prevention, and, of course, the latest on the ever-evolving DTV transition.

-www.nabanet.com

-www.cdtv.ca