Barring nuclear exchanges, this year’s upfront had to be a quieter affair than the last. But that’s not to say that all is status quo. While things might seem quiet on the Southern Upfront, much like that proverbial duck that bobs nonchalantly on the surface while it works its feet like mad below, the relative calm belies a storm of activity. Buyers say broadcasting is undergoing a quantum leap, and it’s time to adapt.

In the U.S., the upfront has been chugging along at mid-to-high single-digit increases, with only UPN pulling in double digits thanks to hits like America’s Next Top Model. The total network upfront sits just above the US$9-billion mark, as it has for the last few years. And as predicted, cable is faring well. An estimated US$1 billion has emigrated, bringing that destination up 15% and above the US$6-billion mark.

At Canada’s private broadcasters, things are similarly less frenzied on network. CTV and Global unveiled their new lineups June 7-11. The common consensus among buyers is that this year’s rate increases will fall somewhere within the 3% to 5% mark, with nets coming to the table with 9% to 15% markups on some hit properties. That’s far from the proposed 25% and 30% increases for those titles that shocked so many last year.

But this year the hype seems to be missing from the equation, and buyers predict that overall spending will be flat at the $2.5-billion mark that has been the norm of late, with the slower cable migration in Canada compensated by slightly larger client investments.

But like elephants, buyers have long memories. Asked if there were lingering bad feelings over last year, one noted: ‘Oh, absolutely. I think if people have an opportunity to screw with Global, they will… Global has to be careful. But a broadcaster can make things up in a big hurry if they seem a little more human, a little more understanding and they are a little more flexible.’

Ken Johnson, SVP television sales division at CanWest Global, concedes that the broadcaster came out with aggressive rates last fall, but says rates have been competitive since January and will continue to be competitive this fall.

And, to be fair, it was hardly just Global with its hand in the cookie jar. Notes Val McMorran, Initiative Media’s broadcast director in Toronto: ‘I found everybody aggressive last year, including some of the major owner groups of specialty. I think the whole medium was getting caught up in the frenzy being fed from the U.S. upfront. Everybody jumped on the bandwagon thinking it was going to be a banner year. Practically every broadcaster group that came through our doors was in the double digits, but not necessarily with any rationale or justification.’

The year that was

While by mid-season last year Global looked like it was in trouble due to much of its schedule going AWOL, a look back on the entire year tells another story.

While CTV came out on top in many categories, Global dominated the top 10 in the 18-to-34 demo with stronger showings for its two Survivor franchises, a parting surge for Friends (up to 18.4 AA from 11.4) and the additions of The Apprentice and still-surprise hit My Big Fat Obnoxious Fiance.

CTV countered with stronger CSI showings (the main show jumped to 11.4 AA from 8.1, and Miami jumped to 11.0 from 6.7), as well as predictably solid showings from mainstays American Idol, ER, Third Watch and additions such as The Simple Life.

For its part, CBC showed big gains for hockey, while CHUM had no hits in the demo’s top 20.

The story was almost exactly the same for the 18-to-49 demo, which showed more balance this year between the nets. While CTV lost The Osbournes and The Amazing Race from the top 20, it added The West Wing and The Simple Life. Global scratched Malcolm in the Middle from the top 20, but barely noticed thanks to The Apprentice and better numbers for other shows in the field.

CTV dominated the top 20 in the 25-to-54 demo, taking nearly half the field and putting up increases for all of its properties. (Perhaps a surprising addition to the list for the net, given the death of actor John Ritter, was 8 Simple Rules.) While it didn’t rock the demo, Global put some numbers in the field and added Without a Trace, which squeaked into the top 20 with a 7.4 rating.

What will happen this year, given what buyers are calling a sub-par crop of shows, will have to be seen. As expected, reality dominated the new offerings, with Mark Burnett managing to put a series on what seems like every single U.S. net. (Oh, and add ‘dramality’ to your lexicon: the combination of drama and reality programming.) Sitcoms were few and far between. Interestingly, many buyers picked Fox’s Method and Red as the best of the lot, although it wasn’t picked up by a Canadian net.

CTV: some fine-tuning

Buyers point out that when you start with eight hours of staple primetime programming (four Law & Order franchises, three CSI franchises and ER), it’s hard to lose. Add the Idols, Amazing Race and summer additions like The Casino and it looks as though CTV is poised to have another stellar year. Heck, CTV even had a Canadian hit this year with Corner Gas.

Although less affected by U.S. feed dropouts than Global, even when CTV did have a show pulled from beneath its feet, it managed to plug in a winner like The Simple Life. All that’s left, notes SVP sales and marketing Rita Fabian, is to solidify its number-one position with strong additions.

At its June 7 fall launch event, CTV presented a lineup that follows the trend in the U.S. to abandon fall season premieres, opting for a 12-month rollout of new shows instead.

New to the sked on Wednesdays at 10 p.m. is the only show buyers were willing to call a slam-dunk: CSI: New York. But buyers also like Wife Swap (which Murray describes as ‘Dr. Phil meets Trading Spaces’), which will appear Mondays at 8 p.m. Some gave the nod to Desperate Housewives, which slots in Sundays at 7 p.m. Other additions include the Rob Lowe vehicle Dr. Vegas at 10 p.m. on Fridays (buyers note that he should have stayed in Washington) and The Benefactor, which appears Mondays at 8 p.m.

Some buyers also say they like CTV pickup Kevin Hill, which has yet to find a home, and Law & Order: Trial By Jury, which will make an appearance mid-season.

Obviously, with this many hits on its hands, CTV is having to slip more titles out of simulcast, but for now that’s not a real problem. Buyers suggest the only room for improvement on CTV might be with the younger demos, which Global still dominates.

Global: Extreme Makeover

Global has certainly had its share of bad press this past year, but that might have as much to do with its sales approach as its ratings. A quick look at the numbers shows that Global didn’t do too badly in most demos, although CH slipped. CanWest was certainly hurt by instability down south, but most buyers are willing to cut them slack, providing the musical chairs come to an end.

The goal for this year? In a word: transparency. Look for CanWest to take plenty of time to explain all the changes that are planned for the season to both viewers (through radio, print and on-air) and the buying community.

Notes Kathy Gardner, VP of integrated media research at CanWest Media Sales, it is a fine balance between ‘taking advantage of opportunities and minimizing changes that are having to be translated to the advertisers.’

Global has mapped out skeds that match up with its U.S. counterparts wherever possible. Look for Global Mondays to align with NBC, beginning with Fear Factor at 8 p.m., into Las Vegas (moving from CH) and new Heather Locklear outlet LAX. CH goes light on Mondays in mid-season with Still Standing leading into Listen Up (another Jason Alexander attempt that buyers doubt will fly) and into The Swan. Topping the night all year long will be a new strip of That ’70s Show and Will & Grace.

Tuesdays on CH sees the introduction of The Billionaire, leading into the 12th and final season of NYPD Blue. On Global mid-season, look for the addition of the Burnett/Stallone reality show The Contender, leading into buyer fave House. Wednesday on CH sees the addition of Hawaii at 8 p.m., and Mel Gibson effort Savages on Global at 8:30 p.m.

‘Friends who?’ is the question on Thursdays. Joey leads the night at 7:30 p.m., ramping up into new episodes of Survivor, The Apprentice and Without a Trace. Fridays on Global will begin with The Next Great Champ, leading into The Jury, although those will give way to The Insider and Jonny Zero later in the year. Global Sundays remain in Fox simulcast, albeit in three incarnations this year. Added in the spring will be Kelsey Grammer Presents: The Sketch Show at 7 p.m. and Seth MacFarlane’s American Dad at 9:30. CH will add The Practice: Fleet Street at 10 p.m.

CHUM: Steady as she goes

CHUM did its level best to add to the sked last year, but the problems Global felt with the U.S. nets were echoed here. The U.S. feeds for 10.8 and Jake 2.0 were canceled mid-season and Fearless never even went to air.

This year, City will have the new Battlestar Galactica, a new season of America’s Next Top Model (also on NewNets) and Sex and the City stripped five days a week. The NewNets will add a number of series, including: Jack and Bobby, which Initiative’s McMorran picked as the only novel concept in the crop of new shows; Life As We Know It, which is being filmed in Vancouver by the folks who brought you Freaks & Geeks; Summerland from Aaron Spelling; and The Ellen DeGeneres Show – a known quantity for buyers when much other talk has failed.

CHUM’s VP of programming Ellen Baine says the net plans to ‘do it strategically and do it slowly… I think at heart, because we are programmers, we want to buy the stuff we really like. We are not buying tonnage and we are not buying time period.’

Buyers note that CHUM is all about second-tier stability, although the net’s ratings have slipped slightly in recent years. But buyers say CHUM is priced right, it usually has the inventory they need and it skews slightly younger.

Notes Dennis Dinga, VP/director of broadcast buying for Toronto’s M2 Universal: ‘CHUM is sitting in a pretty good spot. Let CTV and Global fight it out and they can sit back. It is not costing them the same amount of money for programming. They are second tier, which advertisers and buyers are looking to use all the time.’

-www.ctv.ca

-www.canada.com/globaltv

-www.chumlimited.com

A version of this story appeared in the June 14 issue of Strategy Media.