The deal is done, the players are putting away their golf clubs, and Canada’s national game will return to the ice this fall. The big question for broadcasters is: will the fans and advertisers be back?

As the dust settles from the NHL players lockout, all sides may well be pondering the fallout that hit Major League Baseball in the U.S. after its 1994 strike – when Americans soured on their national sport, keeping attendance and viewership sluggish for years.

Some marketers and sports consultants predict the same problem will hit hockey and, according to recent reports, Canuck casters have cut their ad rates for the coming season by 20% from those of 2003/04 – banking that one-fifth of fans, in the short term at least, will not tune in this fall.

The game is expected to lose even more ground in the U.S. But Canadians are a different and more forgiving breed, insists Dennis Dinga, VP and director of broadcast at media buying firm M2 Universal.

‘Some commentators say the long [lockout] meant Canadians have now gone off and done other things,’ he says. ‘But once the summer is over we’re into a whole new routine. When it is fall, Canadians think about hockey, and I know when the game returns we’ll find the fans right back in front of their TVs.’

Dinga believes broadcasters and advertisers are confident the fans will return, and that discount rates aren’t necessary. He also notes that CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada carried its mutli-year ad contracts from 2003/04 forward into 2005/06.

A declared ‘very, very big fan of hockey,’ Dinga says his clients ‘are eager to get back to Hockey Night in Canada.’

‘If I was negotiating now, I’d try to get the best price for my client. But I don’t think there’s much leeway. The viewing numbers might go down initially, but I think they will roar back.’

Michael Dougherty, VP and managing partner of Mediaedge:cia Canada, thinks time will heal most of the wounds and that, in the lag between the lockout settlement and the first puck drop, ‘there may, in fact, be a pent-up demand for the game.’

The league hopes to bolster that demand with a PR campaign that has already launched, including full-page ads in national newspapers paid for by the NHL and its players. The ads promise that the upcoming season will be ‘more entertaining and exciting than ever.’ The hope is that new rules that have been introduced, including overtime shootouts to help eliminate tie games, will add to viewer enjoyment.

‘Over the next two months, with the [player entry] draft, the restructuring of teams and the new rules to change the game, the press coverage will be significant,’ Dougherty notes.

Meanwhile, the networks are licking their wounds. Undoubtedly, the CBC was the hardest hit. The public broadcaster’s iconic Hockey Night in Canada was, as usual, its top-rated show in 2003/04, pulling in an average 1.8 million viewers during the playoffs. With 27 corporate sponsors such as Labatt, Ford and Mastercard, HNIC generated ad revenue between an estimated $20 million and $60 million.

That loss bit deep, and layoffs at CBC Sports hit some 50 staff. Among the casualties was veteran sportscaster Chris Cuthbert, who, along with his play-by-play duties with Hockey Night in Canada, was also the main voice of the CFL and covered figure skating. Cuthbert has since moved to sports specialty TSN.

But Rene Bertrand, executive director of media sales for CBC and CBC Newsworld, is optimistic about ’05/06, despite the fact a staff strike looms at the Ceeb (see story, p. 2).

‘Saturday night watching Hockey Night in Canada is more than a tradition – it’s almost a religion,’ he says. ‘It is the only thing we have in this country that can be called ‘appointment television.”

He says the network hasn’t had to offer any discounts. ‘I think that talk is coming out of the States, where networks like Fox [and ESPN] have dropped hockey.

‘The marketers are coming back in droves. In fact, I think advertising rates might be going up.’

TSN was, at least, buffered by having other sports to cover and not relying so heavily on the NHL for revenues. President Phil King reports that now that the lockout is over, ‘advertisers’ interest is very encouraging for the upcoming season.’

The station has already tried to rekindle viewer excitement for the NHL, heavily promoting its live broadcast of the July 22 announcement that the Pittsburgh Penguins had won this year’s draft lottery, along with the opportunity to acquire future superstar player Sydney Crosby. The program drew an impressive 378,000 viewers on the Friday afternoon.

‘We’ve been doing a lot of work behind the scenes and will have numerous exciting announcements throughout the summer regarding our NHL broadcast schedule, talent, production elements, marketing, promotions and PR campaigns,’ says King.

-www.cbc.ca

-www.tsn.ca