Organizers of the Toronto International Film Festival are expected to make their pick for the opening-night picture shortly — ending a highly competitive horse race between heavies of the Canadian filmmaking scene including François Girard, David Cronenberg, and Denys Arcand. But only one will see his handiwork on the big screen when the curtain goes up on Sept. 6. The way Playback Daily sees it, the odds break down like this:

7-2 Silk
François Girard’s first feature since 1998’s TIFF opener The Red Violin stars Michael Pitt and Pirates of the Caribbean‘s Keira Knightley in a romantic drama shot in Japan, Italy, France, Egypt, Canada and Russia. Knightley is the best bet to conjure up a frenzy on the red carpet.

4-1 Emotional Arithmetic
Veteran TV helmer Paolo Barzman films an adaptation of the Matt Cohen novel about Holocaust survivors who reunite years later on a bucolic Quebec farm. The stellar cast (Susan Sarandon, Gabriel Byrne, Max von Sydow, Christopher Plummer and Roy Dupuis) has piqued interest.

4-1 Fugitive Pieces
Director Jeremy Podeswa’s adaptation of the novel by Canadian poet Anne Michaels portrays a child who narrowly escapes death at the hands of the Nazis to find a life for himself in Poland, Greece and Canada. Podeswa has been off doing top-notch TV work stateside, so in his choice TIFF would be welcoming home a favorite son.

6-1 L’Âge des ténèbres
Denys Arcand’s dark comedy about a civil servant, played by Marc Labrèche, who slowly slips into a fantasy world while falling for a beautiful movie star (Diane Kruger). If all goes well at Cannes, it could make its North American preem Sept. 6 in Toronto.

8-1 Eastern Promises
While hometown director David Cronenberg — in a late career renaissance, if A History of Violence is any indication — and producer Robert Lantos are opening-night regulars, and stars Viggo Mortensen and Naomi Watts will bring the press, word is TIFF has already booked them for the opening weekend instead.

12-1 Shake Hands with the Devil
Veteran helmer Roger Spottiswoode (The 6th Day, Tomorrow Never Dies) crafts an epic biopic shot in Rwanda with Roy Dupuis as retired Lt.-Gen. Roméo Dallaire, who fought unsuccessfully to stop that nation’s 1994 bloodbath. Features the most serious of subjects, and everybody likes a movie about a hero.