In the battle for Canadian eyeballs, CTV has conquered primetime for five consecutive years. The network finished the 2006/07 season with eight of Canada’s top-10 programs, and 16 of the top-20 shows.

Meanwhile, Global Television, which had dominated the broadcast landscape in the late 1990s, has more recently lagged behind. But over the past couple of seasons, Global has become more aggressive with its acquisitions and has improved its track record for picking hits, as Heroes and House have demonstrated.

This fall will also mark the launch of E!, CanWest’s secondary network, which has previously been airing under the CH brand.

Playback asked several media buyers to weigh in on the nets’ latest fall pickups. Among the observations: CTV is looking to skew younger, while Global’s new shows target an older demo. Otherwise, the consensus is that while Global might continue to chip away at CTV’s dominance, on the whole, the new crop of shows will yield few successes.

CTV

Pickups:
Private Practice, Dirty Sexy Money, Big Shots, Pushing Daisies, Moonlight, Gossip Girl, The Big Bang Theory (late fall), Without a Trace and Two and a Half Men (the latter two formerly aired on Global; Men will appear late fall)

Returning series:
CSI, CSI: Miami, CSI: New York, Law & Order: SVU, Law & Order: Criminal Intent, Grey’s Anatomy, ER, Ghost Whisperer, Dancing with the Stars, Cold Case, Desperate Housewives, Criminal Minds

Returning Canadian series:
Corner Gas, Degrassi: The Next Generation, Whistler, Robson Arms, Canadian Idol, Comedy Now (mid-season), Comedy Inc. (mid-season)

Returning mid-season:
Law & Order, Lost, The Amazing Race, American Idol

Cancelled:
The O.C., Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip, Justice, Close to Home, Smith, The Nine, The Class, The Knights of Prosperity

Schedule moves:
•Cold Case to Sunday 8 p.m. from 7 p.m.
•Dancing with the Stars to Monday 8 p.m. from Tuesday 8 p.m.
•
Corner Gas starts the season Monday 9:30 p.m., then returns to 8 p.m. after DWTS ends
•Degrassi: TNG to Tuesday 9 p.m. from 8 p.m. after DWTS ends
•Criminal Minds to Wednesday 9 p.m. from Tuesday 9 p.m.
•ER to Thursday 7 p.m. (not simulcast) from 10 p.m. simulcast
•CSI to Thursday 8 p.m. (not simulcast) from 9 p.m. simulcast
•Grey’s Anatomy to Thursday 9 p.m. simulcast from 8 p.m. pre-release

Trends:
CTV traditionally skews older than Global, but by picking up shows such as the fantasy Pushing Daisies (starring Lee Pace as a young man with the ability to revive the dead) and Gossip Girl (a youth-oriented soap set in New York’s Upper East Side), CTV seems to be targeting a younger audience.

CTV’s simulcasting is way down for fall 2007, notes M2 Universal’s Dennis Dinga. The majority of CTV’s new series – Pushing Daisies, Gossip Girl, Private Pratice and Dirty Sexy Money – are not in simulcast. On Thursday nights, both ER and CSI have also been taken out of simulcast.

Simulcasting, Dinga points out, captures a 10% to 15% higher audience, and he is concerned how these new shows will perform outside of it.

The Verdict:

Kim Osborne, group director, broadcast, PHD Canada:
‘Grey’s Anatomy will crack the top five in Canada now that it is in simulcast, and Private Practice will be in the top 10.’

Private Practice is a spin-off of hit Grey’s, starring Kate Walsh as Dr. Addison Montgomery, who moves to Los Angeles to start over at a private medical clinic.

‘Big Shots will be gone by end of October, and ER will be moved from 7 p.m. into its spot,’ Osborne predicts. Big Shots stars Dylan McDermott, Michael Vartan, Joshua Malina and Christopher Titus as four CEOs on the make.

‘I don’t think women – who watch more TV than men – want to see a bunch of obnoxious guys. I wasn’t thrilled with it.’

Florence Ng, VP broadcast investments, Zenith Optimedia:
‘The majority of CTV’s new shows are not simulcast with the U.S. network, which could impact their performance.
‘CTV will continue to rely on their returning shows, but these programs will likely experience further audience erosion. CTV will, however, maintain the number-one position in the ’07/08 season, because they still have a better overall schedule.’

Dennis Dinga, director of broadcast buying, M2 Universal:
‘If you take a look at the CTV sked, it is getting older. Their Law & Order, CSI and other established programs are aging, while Global is picking up a lot of fresh new programming, and some of it, like Prison Break and Heroes, is sticking. I expect Global will nip at the heels of CTV and take one or two top-20 programs away from them, particularly in the older demographics.’

GLOBAL

Pickups:
Journeyman, Cane, Back to You, Life, ‘da Kink in My Hair (Canadian)

Mid-season acquisitions:
Swingtown, Canterbury’s Law

New mid-season Canadian series:
About a Girl, Durham County, Search and Rescue

Returning series:
Prison Break, 24 (mid-season), Heroes, House, NCIS, Bones, Survivor, The Office, My Name Is Earl, Shark, Friday Night Lights, Las Vegas, Numb3rs, The Simpsons, King of the Hill, Family Guy, American Dad, Brothers and Sisters, ‘Til Death, Painkiller Jane (Canadian), Global Currents (Canadian)
Cancelled:
Kidnapped, Six Degrees, Standoff, Vanished, Gilmore Girls, The Winner, Daybreak, The Black Donnellys, Crossing Jordan, Kidnapped, Falcon Beach, The Jane Show

Key schedule moves:
•American Dad moves to Sunday 9:30 p.m. from 8:30 p.m.
•NCIS and ‘Til Death move to Global from CH

E! debut lineup:
E! new series:
Viva Laughlin, Bionic Woman, Cashmere Mafia, K-Ville, Women’s Murder Club, Kid Nation, Dr. 90210, Sunset Tan
E! mid-season acquisitions:
In Plain Sight, Life Is Wild

E! mid-season original series:
Stunt Stars, Hollywood’s Greatest Mysteries, Naked Fashion, E! True Hollywood Story Canadian Edition

E! returning series:
Boston Legal, Deal or No Deal, The Insider, The Biggest Loser, Final 24, Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, 1 vs. 100, Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? (the latter two moving over from Global)

Trends:
Global’s pickup strategy for the fall was to find strong programs for its weekday 10 p.m. timeslot, says CanWest senior VP of programming Barbara Williams.

‘We have had great success with our 8 and 9 p.m. slots [i.e. Prison Break, Heroes, House, Bones, Survivor], so we were looking for shows that would successfully move audiences coming out of the 9 p.m. timeslots to 10 p.m.’

Many of Global’s new series, including Journeyman, Cane and Life, are being positioned in that 10 p.m. slot, where they are facing stiff competition from CTV’s proven hits.

The vast majority of Global’s primetime series – both new and returning – have male leads, notes PHD’s Osborne.

‘Their new dramas are more for the 35-and-up demo,’ she says, adding that the network is simulcasting as many programs as possible.

The Verdict:

Osborne:
Predicts the TV newsroom sitcom Back to You, starring Frasier’s Kelsey Grammer and Everybody Loves Raymond’s Patricia Heaton as bickering anchors, will be Global’s only new hit. She also sees some potential for Cane, a drama about a Florida sugarcane dynasty starring Jimmy Smits.

‘[Grammer and Heaton] have a real following. As well, we haven’t had a comedy for a middle-age bracket in awhile. Cane will also survive, but otherwise I don’t see any breakout hits…Still, I think Global will continue to chip away at CTV’s ratings, and I expect House to be in the top five.’

Rosemary Cooper, director multimedia, sponsorships and broadcast investments, Zenith Optimedia:
‘I like Cane and am really curious to see how it does up against Law & Order: SVU. It has a strong cast and it is a bit different. We haven’t had a lot of strong ensemble family dramas, and I think Jimmy Smits will have a lot to do with its success. I am also curious to see how Back to You performs. I am concerned about the time slot [Wednesday at 8 p.m. up against Private Practice].’

Cooper notes that Global’s returning hits have already peaked or are trending down in ratings, including Survivor, House and Prison Break, and it will take more than these shows for the network to even consider regaining the number-one position from CTV.

Dinga:
‘Neither network has any new shows that really stand out. Of all the new shows, maybe one or two might break the top 20. I expect most of the top programs will be the same as last year, including American Idol, CSI and Grey’s Anatomy.’