CTV exec Rick Brace reckons that the Olympic Broadcast Media Consortium will break even on the Vancouver Games – his views in contrast to persistent rumblings that the organization will lose money on the costly event in spite of record-breaking viewership.

There’s no question that the ratings have been impressive, say industry watchers, though some still doubt CTV, along with Rogers Media, will recoup the record $90 million it doled out for exclusive rights to the Games.

U.S. broadcaster NBC made no bones about the fact that it expects to lose money on the Vancouver spectacle – for which it paid US$820 million – as a result of slow ad sales, though ratings have been strong.

Brace’s optimistic comments, in which he talked up the ‘home-soil advantage,’ were made only about a week into the Games, at which point the CTV-led consortium was not yet meeting its own audience expectations, according to some media buyers and critics. But that was before big-ticket sporting events such as hockey and figure skating had really kicked into high gear. (Team Canada garnered audiences north of 10 million viewers [2+] for hockey games played during the second week of the Games.)

‘They’re not doing as well as what they think they’re doing,’ observed media buyer Kim Osborne of PHD Canada. ‘The [opening] ceremonies did great… best numbers ever. However, when you look at their audiences compared to their estimates, in some places they’re doing okay, in others they’re not,’ she adds, noting that average audiences for late-night and afternoon rotations were below estimates, while weekend audiences were higher than expected. (The opening ceremonies netted an impressive 13.3 million viewers on 11 consortium channels.)

Midway through the Games, veteran sports writer William Houston, citing unidentified sources in a story for Yahoo! Sports, said CTV is ‘certain to lose money’ on the Vancouver Olympics, putting losses in the $20 million range. The former Globe and Mail columnist suggested the broadcaster had plenty of unsold advertising inventory before the event got underway.

There was ‘definitely a big push at the end to get last-minute inventory sold,’ recalls media buyer Theo Sevier of Mediaedge:cia, noting that CTV’s push to sell profitable national spots was later amended to allow clients to buy in specific markets such as Toronto. He couldn’t say if CTV had sold out advertising time by the start of the Olympics, but remarked that clients who bought packages were ‘certainly thrilled’ with how they were delivering.

As Playback went to press, there were still three days of competition left, including the gold medal final in men’s hockey, a ratings bonanza for the consortium should the Canucks advance. Consequently, it will only become clear in the weeks following the close of the Olympics if CTV’s high expectations of Vancouver were met.

With files from Etan Vlessing