Fall TV 2009: Back from the brink

The private networks have seen a dramatic reversal of fortune halfway through the 2009 fall TV season, with primetime audience numbers up significantly from the lackluster showing of 2008.

While CTV remains number one, the success story of the season thus far is Global Television, which, despite the financial woes of parent Canwest, has made impressive strides as it continues to close the ratings gap with its archrival.

Global has seen its strongest fall in six years, with primetime audiences up 56% for total viewers nationally, while CTV has grown by 31%.

The overall upward trend is thanks to a number of factors, including BBM Canada’s new Portable People Meters, which launched Aug. 31, and are said to provide a more accurate picture of ratings than the old-fashioned system. The 2008 season was also plagued by the aftermath of the Hollywood writers strike, which affected the quality of TV product in the marketplace.

‘Fall 2009 is actually a better season,’ concurs media buyer Florence Ng of ZenithOptimedia Canada. ‘Coming out of the writers strike last year, nobody seemed to have the time to come up with the pilots for the new season. [Networks] managed to develop programming this year that is better in terms of quality overall, and there’s more people watching them.’

A look at the numbers for the week ending Oct. 25 shows CTV, not surprisingly, winning the 2+ and more crucial 25-54 demographic with 11 of the top 20 shows in each – though that’s a noted departure from the days when the broadcaster claimed 15 of the top 20 programs. Global owns most of the rest, followed by CBC with Hockey Night in Canada and Battle of the Blades.

In addition to making gains in the older demographics, Global says it’s ahead of its competitor in the younger 18-49 demo – the constant focus of its efforts – holding 10 of the top 20 shows, followed by CTV with nine, according to Canwest data beginning Sept. 14. CTV numbers take into account Sept. 21 to Oct. 25.

Both nets are up in 18-49, Global with 39% followed by CTV with 18%. (All data cited is based on PPM results.)

While Global persisted on the strength of returning fare, including reliable dramas House (with an average 3.2 million viewers), NCIS (2.5 million), and reality Survivor (three million), the overall solidity of its schedule can be attributed to winning U.S. pickups such as comedies Glee (1.5 million) and The Cleveland Show (one million), and spinoff NCIS: Los Angeles (1.9 million). (All individual show numbers 2+.)

‘Global has to be thrilled with their first six weeks,’ observes media buyer Theo Sevier with Mediaedge:cia. ‘Every one of their new shows has been picked up for a full season [by U.S. broadcasters]. They don’t have any holes,’ he says, noting that usually the broadcaster would be replacing shows already. (Sophomore sci-fi Dollhouse was canceled at press time.)

Canwest EVP of content Barbara Williams says the net’s strategy was to build a strong balance across all genres, including in scripted, reality and comedy fare.

‘We had a lot of confidence going into this fall… having more top 20 shows is what puts us in a stronger position with advertisers [and] it speaks to the strength of the overall schedule as opposed to just one or two hits,’ she says.

CTV stays steady

CTV’s dependable schedule remained largely unchanged from last year, bolstered by the aging CSIs (all three still top 10 shows), red-hot Grey’s Anatomy and Criminal Minds (both of which yielded their biggest audiences to date this fall), Desperate Housewives (2.1 million) and venerable reality The Amazing Race (2.6 million). The only new addition to the sked was teen romance The Vampire Diaries, airing in early primetime to just under one million viewers. (Sci-fi drama V premiered later in November.)

While she recognizes that CTV ‘wants to stay with the tried and true,’ Ng points out that if you want to grow your schedule, you need to add new candidates. ‘The proven shows have nowhere to go but down,’ she adds.

Mike Cosentino, SVP of program scheduling at CTV, insists there isn’t a show that came into the market that would have knocked any of the programs on CTV’s current schedule out of contention. He says the network continues to measure the veteran shows on a seasonal basis.

‘We’re not on autopilot…. [and] they may be tried and true, but the reality is those are the programs viewers are making the connection with,’ he counters.

Among the highlights of the fall, musical comedy Glee has emerged as the season’s standout show, averaging 1.5 million viewers on Global after six episodes, despite tough competition from Criminal Minds, with roughly 2.8 million.

‘[Glee] is giving us some strength on Wednesday night, a night that we traditionally struggled with,’ Williams says. The show received a full-season order from Fox after three weeks.

Global devoid of E!

The 2009 fall season also saw a marked reversal from last year when CTV and Global were competing with their secondary over-the-air channels A and E!, respectively — though debt-laden Canwest was forced to sell off the latter earlier this year.

Williams brushes off suggestions Global execs were able to focus more intently on the main network with the absence of the Es.

‘I believe Global would have the exact same schedule it has today even if we still had the Es,’ she says.

Ng points out that from a programming perspective, Global has ‘the cream of the crop,’ because all their efforts are fixated on one network, but on the flip side, the broadcaster’s share in the market is smaller because it has one less network, and isn’t able to offer buyers as many options.

CTV uses its A channel for additional programs that could potentially migrate to the chockful main network. Its top shows are the comedies Two and a Half Men (1.1 million) and The Big Bang Theory (950,000), followed by sci-fi Fringe (800,000 viewers).

As far as the PPMs go, media buyers and programmers alike are taking a wait-and-see approach to the new technology, which has inflated numbers for drama and reality fare to new highs.

The system is more passive, and as a result more accurate, according to Ng, who explains that it’s beneficial for shows that tend to have more family viewing, like Global’s Survivor and CTV’s winter hit American Idol.

‘With the [old] meter, if one member has already clicked on, the rest of the family wouldn’t worry much about it. But all of a sudden, [with PPM] everyone’s recorded… it’s more accurate,’ she suggests.

Adds Cosentino: ‘The jury is still out for us on PPM. It’s telling a story that will unfold over the whole year.’