Oscar doubles your chances

When the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced that there will be 10 nominees for best picture at the 82nd Academy Awards next March, any producer could have been excused for swooning.

Imagine: double the chances at a nomination. Not for the actual Oscar, mind you, and the moment of babbling joy before an audience of trillions. But, as the saying goes, it’s an honor to be nominated. Especially when those Academy laurels can be festooned upon a DVD jewel box.

The Academy rarely makes a decision without stirring some controversy, but this was huge. The New York Times and the Los Angeles Times featured competing stories of persons who were outraged or enthusiastic. The big question: Will it dilute the brand?

I put it to Marshall Herskovitz, president of the Producers Guild of America, and an Academy Award-nominated producer in his own right for Traffic.

‘As a past nominee, let me tell you, being nominated is not as good as winning. There’s only going to be one winner. So I don’t think that’s diluting the brand. It’s acknowledged that the voting of the Academy is inherently biased toward drama and against comedy and animation. So with 10 you are more likely to see comedy and animated nominees.’

He suggested WALL-E would have been in contention had there been 10 nominations last year.

Granted, ‘any change is going to have a downside,’ said Herskovitz. ‘It will be easier to be nominated now than in the past, so it’s a bit like moving in the fences of the ballpark. But there will be only one winner.’

I called another Academy member and got an earful of dissent – anonymously, alas. No one wants to lose work for not toeing the company line.

The source said the Academy made the move in the hope of increasing the number of mainstream movies in the running for the top prize – titles such as The Dark Knight and (yes, Mr. Herskovitz) WALL-E were seen to have been overlooked in the 2009 contest. This is the logic chain: having more movies that people have seen in award contention will goose the ratings for the awards telecast.

‘It’s delusional,’ said the source. ‘Viewing habits have changed forever. It’s not just the 1,000 channels and other media. It’s largely disinterest.’

Academy president Sid Ganis told me there was no truth to the rumor that broadcast rights holder ABC had been putting the screws to his august body. But he did admit that ratings are a concern.

Although Hugh Jackman’s MC performance at the 2009 awards brought an upswing from last year – from 32 million to 36.3 million U.S. viewers – the numbers have been on a downward trend for some time. Two years ago, there were 40 million viewers. In the Titanic year of 1998, there were 55 million viewers.

As Ganis pointed out when announcing the switch to 10, the move harkens back to the good old days. In its early years, the Academy had more than five best picture nominees, ranging from eight nominees in 1931 and 1932 to 12 nominees in 1934 and 1935, before settling down to 10 nominees until 1943 when Casablanca was voted the best of the 10.

I asked Ganis why the Academy had switched from 10 nominees to five. ‘We did an exhaustive search and we couldn’t find any reference. We have the minutes of all the board meetings, but there’s no indication whatsoever.’

It is perhaps stating the obvious that the increased number of nominees increases the chance of a nomination for non-American films, even – dare one suggest? – a Canadian film.

I dared. I asked Ganis if Sarah Polley’s Away from Her, with nominations for best actress and best adapted screenplay, would have had a good chance of landing a best film nomination under the new system.

‘It could have,’ said Ganis, although I detected some hesitation in enthusiastically endorsing the idea. ‘It’s open to the wider mode of filmmaking.’ He said he had just returned from China and had seen three films that were ‘damn good.’ He wouldn’t say which three so as not to give an advantage. Of course, the main obstacle to a nomination is landing a U.S. distribution deal.

That’s still enough to make any Canadian producer swoon.