MONTREAL

What’s changed?

Not a whole lot, actually. TVA remains the runaway market leader, followed by Radio-Canada in second place. TQS, rescued from bankruptcy by Remstar Corporation about 15 months ago, is still a distant third. TQS will get new branding and a new name in September, so watch this space.

On the strength of reality shows like Le Banquier (the French counterpart to Deal or No Deal) and Occupation double, TVA’s share in the Quebec francophone market was a whopping 28.3 for the September 2008 to May 2009 broadcast period, more than double SRC (a 14 share) and well ahead of TQS (6.1). It also led in both the daytime and primetime ratings. Its performance contributed to a slight increase in profit for owner Quebecor’s broadcast operations for the three months ending March 31, as they jumped to $12.4 million from $11 million in the year-earlier period.

What’s next?

After struggling financially for years, TQS is attempting to rebuild under new ownership. One strategy has been creating themed nights, similar to the approach CBC took – and subsequently abandoned – several years ago.

TQS has countered by investing heavily in U.S. programming, importing shows like Fringe, The Mentalist and Wipeout.

‘They usually don’t do that well with English programming, but there have been some over the years that have worked,’ says Kim Dougherty, director of national broadcast investments for OMD Canada in Toronto. ‘The X-Files always worked in the Quebec marketplace, and Fringe is very much like that. [Quebec audiences] also like wacky stunt-type things, so Wipeout could do well.’

For its part, notes Jean-Pierre Giroux, VP of broadcast at Touché!PHD, TVA has ‘said to us that they will not produce and broadcast programs anymore. They will create and broadcast brands.’

Best Bets

Politician Mario Dumont, former leader of Action Démocratique, joined TQS earlier this year, and will host a daily current affairs show on the network beginning in September. Elsewhere, TVA boasts returning favorites like Star Académie and Occupation double.

TORONTO

What’s changed?

One word: recession. Conventional broadcasters are experiencing unprecedented economic hardship, which has led to layoffs, asset sales and renewed calls for the CRTC to re-examine the contentious fee-for-carriage issue. (No luck on that front for broadcasters.)

Canwest has already placed its five E! channels (including Hamilton’s CHCH-TV) on the block, while CTV recently unloaded three of its A Channels in Ontario and Winnipeg to Shaw Communications for $1 apiece.

The broadcasters weren’t helped any by a mediocre 2008/09 season, which failed to yield any breakout hits (though some freshman shows, including CTV’s Fringe, were renewed).

The ratings battle in Toronto produced the customary showdown between perennial market leader CTV and Global Television, with CTV’s CFTO boasting a 7.5 share among adults 25-54 for the September 2008 to May 2009 period, followed by Global with a 4.6 share.

What’s next?

At last month’s upfront presentation, Barbara Williams, EVP of content for Canwest Broadcasting, confirmed buyer speculation that the E! stations will no longer play a role in the company’s plans. ‘Clearly, we’ve made a strategic decision at the company that running one conventional network is the way to go,’ she said.

Buyers feel that having the underperforming E!s out of the picture will enable Canwest to focus solely on its core Global property. Florence Ng, VP of broadcast investments at ZenithOptimedia Canada, says this development could help the perennial second-place broadcaster close the gap with market leader CTV.

As is usually the case, CTV has few holes to fill in its primetime lineup, although buyers feel some of its properties, such as CSI and the seemingly ageless Law & Order, are getting a little long in the tooth.

Citytv got off to what Ng calls a ‘relatively weak’ start in its first full season under the Rogers Communications umbrella, as shows like Crusoe and Glam God failed to find an audience. It gained momentum in the spring, however, courtesy of stalwarts like The Bachelor and 30 Rock. ‘They just have to maintain the momentum,’ says Ng.

Best bets?

Global is adding to its longstanding Sunday night animation block with Family Guy spin-off The Cleveland Show, but OMD’s Dougherty wonders if Canwest is catering too much towards a young male audience with such risqué fare. Global is also moving Heroes from its traditional Monday timeslot to a pre-release position at 10 p.m. Sunday (Brothers & Sisters, which has occupied that spot, moves to Monday).

VANCOUVER

What’s changed?

CTV has the stronger schedule, but Global has the stronger signal. As a result, Vancouver remained one of the few strongholds for Global last season. Aided by what Ng describes as a ‘very well-established’ news presence, Global’s CHAN-TV drew a 10.6 share among adults 25-54 for the September to May period, according to BBM, followed by CTV’s CIVT with a 7.3 share, CBC with a 4.1 share and City with a 2.1 share.

What’s next?

With the loss of Canwest’s secondary channel E! buyers expect fragmentation to alleviate in the heavily saturated Vancouver market – which boasts eight stations, plus spill from U.S. stations like Bellingham, Washington’s KVOS.

Best bets?

CTV and Rogers co-own the broadcast rights to a little event called the Vancouver Winter Olympics, which will likely attract a few viewers. Meanwhile, much of the buzz surrounding CTV comes from the ABC pickup Flash Forward and the one-hour drama The Forgotten. City, meanwhile, is showing the somewhat contentious Jay Leno Show at 10 p.m. five nights a week.

Canwest’s Williams feels there’s an opportunity for rivals to grow 10 p.m. audiences at City’s expense. ‘If I had to guess, I think [Leno’s] audience is going to be a little smaller rather than a little bigger,’ she said during the broadcaster’s upfront presentation.

Leno’s audiences are also expected to skew male, leading Canwest to counter with a full slate of female-friendly shows (The Good Wife, Melrose Place, 90210) in the 10 p.m. slot. *

For an extended version of this story, don’t miss the July/August edition of Strategy magazine.