With the world going to hell in an economic hand basket, it was a given that this year’s upfronts were going to be more homey affairs. Under the circumstances, less pomp was certainly in order.

While most media buyers say there are no sure breakout hits in the few acquisitions that cracked the fall lineups, none are complaining about the status quo. Stability is never a bad thing, after all, especially if you’re talking about advertisers and their money. Fewer launches mean fewer risks.

‘With no changes,’ observes Florence Ng, VP broadcast investments at ZenithOptimedia, ‘it becomes: How does your schedule compare to the competition? Are you still maintaining that dominant role? Basically, it gives the buying community a comfort zone. All the good shows, all the shows that we are familiar with are going to be coming back.

‘This year, there is a lot more selection, a better variety, and hopefully some [shows] will actually survive to the end of the year.’

So, once you’ve ruled out revolution, all that’s left is evolution. Here’s the buyers’ take on the four networks’ scheduling and acquisition strategies.

CTV
Hits and misses:

Never in the history of television have buyers used the phrase ‘tried and true and safe’ so often. With CTV only adding one new show to the primetime lineup, it’s understandable that that’s what got most of the attention.

Vampire Diaries has been slotted in at 7 p.m., but buyers expect it could move if it breaks out. Put to a panel at Gaggi Media in Toronto – consisting of Kelly Dutton (VP), Susan Robb (media supervisor) and Sarah Bergamo (senior media buyer/planner) – they say the show brims with potential: ‘The station has chosen to stretch the ‘Twilight’ hours and jump on the popular vampire bandwagon. It is in a timeslot where big competition is scarce and vampire magnetism could persist.’

Buyers applaud the pairing of Big Bang Theory with Two and a Half Men on Monday nights (following the U.S. example), but otherwise the sked saw no significant changes that should negatively affect viewership.

Over on the As, it’s a slightly different story. Flash Forward is the buzz show, even though the network was not allowed to screen the pilot for buyers. That didn’t dampen enthusiasm, however. ‘I think that is a show that is going to come out of the gate well, like Fringe did,’ predicts Anne Muscat-Erskine, investment director at Starcom Worldwide, ‘and they’ve paired it with Fringe.’ She believes it may make an appearance on CTV if viewers show up – but that would mean taking it out of simulcast, as CTV already has CSI and Grey’s Anatomy in simulcast.

Wednesday nights is the big question for the As. With four new shows back-to-back, buyers are a little worried about the lineup, labeling it a ‘wait and see’ – many buyers, that is, but not all. The Gaggi team labels the new Wednesday shows all ‘misses’ – mostly thanks to the competition they’re up against: Hank against Next Top Model (CTV) and Parenthood (Citytv); The Beautiful Life against Glee (Global) and Criminal Minds (CTV), etc. Time will tell.

Media buyer’s take:

The CTV strategy won the award for ‘The Shrewdest’ from the Gaggi panel. ‘The station is playing it very safe,’ they note, ‘with their dependable, tried and true schedule of proven hits.’

Inese Korbs, director of media investments at M2 Universal, makes an observation that should be noted, however: ‘The way we see it is that they have three distinct schedules. They have the fall schedule, which is dancing and drama. And then there is the Olympic schedule. And then there is post-Olympic, where it sounds like there is going to be a fair bit of Canadian.’ (At least the first two-thirds of that equation is a known quantity right now.)

When it comes to the As, Gaggi expects the stations to ‘have some difficult struggles with more of the new shows on their schedule.’ That, combined with the significant changes on Global and City (CTV is anchored with Criminal Minds and CSI: NY), likely means Wednesday night is the only night in the schedule that could be up for grabs.

CANWEST
Hits and misses:

Of the half-dozen or so new shows added to the Canwest lineup, two were singled out for praise among most buyers – Glee and The Good Wife. Glee, the first episode of which screened on Fox last season, has a high school musical feel to it (‘Disney-like,’ as one described it), which could find a family audience. Or, as Gaggi puts it: ‘This new contender could be Wednesday night’s answer for the younger 12-24 and 12-34 target looking for an exercise in procrastination, layered with a tiny bit of cheese.’

The Good Wife has strong casting in Julianna Margulies and will benefit from a late Tuesday night simulcast. Although likely a survivor, it faces tough competition from CTV’s Law & Order: SVU. The same can be said of NCIS: Los Angeles (really, people, now we’re starting with NCIS…?), which has the star power of LL Cool J and Chris O’Donnell, but is up against CTV’s So You Think You Can Dance Canada.

Less certain is Melrose Place, which media buyers say is handicapped by post release and slightly lower production value compared to its kitschy kin, 90210. Although paired on The CW, in Canada, Melrose leads out Wednesday night primetime, while 90210 does the same Thursday – splitting the audience of thirtysomethings dying to relive the ’90s (for reasons unfathomable).

Media buyer’s take:

Buyers think that dropping the E! burden and concentrating on a single network was a winning move. The Gaggi panel says Canwest is ‘being shrewd and hanging on to proven hits like House, Survivor, Bones and The Simpsons while also investing in strong new contenders.’

‘I think Canwest’s schedule looks stronger,’ agrees M2’s Korbs. ‘Now that they don’t have E! to fill, they have more for their Global stations.’

While offloading E! may have freed up Canwest to concentrate its efforts on Global, that doesn’t mean it should expect the E! audience to do the same. Buyers believe E! viewers will spread out to find other light fare (such as comedy), and will jump to the As or City – something Rogers is undoubtedly hoping for, given the way it’s positioning itself this year.

ROGERS
Hits and misses:

City offered the most fodder for speculation thanks to the volume of new and new-to-the-network programming. On the winning side is Modern Family, part of an all-new Wednesday lineup. Although the entire night is unproven, the primetime night leads with Parenthood (from Ron Howard and Brian Grazer), jumps to Modern Family, hands off to the Courteney Cox vehicle Cougar Town (which Ng believes is the night’s weak link), and closes with The Jay Leno Show. This ain’t exactly the A channel’s Wednesday night experiment.

As was hammered home during the upfront, Leno squares off against murder and mayhem on other stations, so buyers think it has a good chance with viewers looking for escape. And at five hours a week in simulcast, it’s a strong closer. ‘We’re going to have to see how that does at 10 o’clock,’ says Muscat-Erskine. ‘But it’s an interesting notion – it will be new programming all year round, when the prime shows go into repeats.’

Community is a question mark. Although they found it entertaining, buyers note that it’s up against Grey’s Anatomy (CTV) and Fringe (A), although it will benefit from a 30 Rock lead-in.

The Gaggi team spots two misses in the City lineup: Accidentally on Purpose and Trauma. Accidentally, where the unfunny Jenna Elfman stars as a film critic who gets pregnant after a one-night stand (ya, I thought Knocked Up was pretty funny, too, guys), is up against House (Global) and Dancing with the Stars (CTV). Trauma is also up against stiff competition… and might just suck.

City also picked up Biggest Loser and Extreme Makeover Home Edition, programming audiences are already comfortable with. Muscat-Erskine adds a note of caution – viewers will just have to know where to find them: ‘City has to get out there say, ‘Hey, we have these shows now,’ and I’m sure that they will.’

Media buyer’s take:

Gaggi gives Rogers an A+ for getting strong new contenders while maintaining existing favorites like 30 Rock and Ugly Betty, as well as extra credit for having so much of the lineup in simulcast. (Perhaps slightly less credit coming from industry unions in Canada…) And while the new network isn’t in Global’s league yet, it might not be far off if the new shows click. Ng says she welcomes the added competition City represents.

CBC
Media buyer’s take:

The victim of recent cuts, CBC downplayed the upfronts this year, forgoing the ceremony for direct meetings with agency reps. The main addition to the CBC lineup is a seven-week run of Battle of the Blades, which buyers are split over. Blades has the hockey and freak-show factors working for it, but Gaggi notes ‘the concept is just a wee bit silly. Plus, it is up against The Simpsons/Cleveland Show on Sundays and House/Dancing with the Stars on Mondays.’

Where the Ceeb is likely to maintain its edge is in (obviously) hockey and Canadian reality, with fare such as Dragons’ Den.