The cost-cutters are restless.

At this very instant, senior managers at regional TV stations are running their fingers over the steely edge of an ax, as they eye necks in newsrooms and back-office suites.

Network CEOs are running scared that their biggest clients face ruin or may drastically cut their advertising budgets as consumers rein in their own spending.

We’ve started to see Canadian broadcasters take write-downs on the value of their over-the-air TV stations as they take measure of their immediate futures.

The upcoming CRTC licence renewal hearings for CTV and Global Television could well be D-Day for a Canadian conventional TV bailout.

The trial balloon has been floated, and it remains for CRTC chair Konrad von Finckenstein to pop it by arguing that while conventional TV viewership is down, the networks still have tangible profits from specialty channels, radio stations and newspapers.

What’s more, networks will not be bailed out for bad business decisions.

Don’t be too surprised if there is more blood on the floor before CTVglobemedia and Canwest Global Communications go before the CRTC next April to pitch their plans for the next seven years.

The last time the CRTC held licence renewal hearings for CTV and Global in 2001, the key regulatory concern was concentration of ownership – especially when it came to newsrooms.

The way Canwest CEO Leonard Asper sounded as he addressed financial analysts this Nov. 14, the 2009 hearings for his network will be about distressed conventional TV networks rolling back local programming obligations so they can stay in business.

‘Our cost obligations, our content obligations – this is not over,’ Asper said, in reference to losing the fee-for-carriage fight at recent CRTC hearings.

The tone of the expected pitch for regulatory relief – calibrated or Chicken Little – will be revealed in January, when CTV and Canwest’s Global submit formal applications for licence renewal ahead of the spring hearings.

For direction, we could look to Britain, where the BBC is the dominant player, much like CTV, and ITV has to play catch-up, as does Global.

ITV this past fall sought from OFCOM, Britain’s TV watchdog, to reduce its public-service broadcasting obligations to cushion itself against a revenue shortfall.

In the end, OFCOM allowed ITV to cut back on its regional news obligations, though that’s certainly not the end of its challenges.

The Canadian conventionals want similar relief, as they look to cut expenses and hoard cash in tough times. The CRTC recently introduced a $60-million local-programming fund for small-market TV stations that boost local expenditures.

The snag is that conventional networks want to see a reduction in local programming hours and expenditures to compete in the digital age, not more.

In its latest round of cuts, Canwest said it will cancel four shows at Hamilton, ON-based CHCH to bring that station’s local hours from 41.5 to 37 hours – just above its requirement.

The nets sense reductions on that scale are possible if a flexible von Finckenstein bargains constructively in April.

He has done so in the past, allowing the broadcasters to get most of what they want by making them give up something else.

Recall CTV’s play last year for five Citytv stations. The CRTC chair said that bid would breach the regulator’s ‘twin sticks’ policy and increase media concentration. CTV later talked about spinning off City stations in Winnipeg, Edmonton and Calgary, but that was too little, too late, and CTV was eventually forced to sell the City stations to seal its CHUM deal.

The CRTC bargained with Canwest on the Alliance Atlantis Communications deal until the broadcaster met the letter of the Broadcasting Act.

If anything, broadcast execs are puzzled as to why von Finckenstein didn’t horse-trade on the subscriber-fee issue at last April’s hearings.

Now they’re hoping for better luck at the licence renewal hearings – namely, that von Finckenstein will at long last be happy with their business case for meaningful regulatory relief, and show them the money.

Of course, the broadcasters are under no illusions. They know the CRTC chair may say he won’t bail out TV networks for bad corporate decisions.

They also know there will likely be no repeat of last year’s bid by Quebec distributor Remstar to make TQS profitable by slashing its news coverage.

The networks know Remstar had nothing to lose with its doomsday scenario.

CTV and Global, by contrast, are keen to remain corporate players, and, what’s more, maintain local newscasts for much-needed local advertising dollars.

Of course, it’s also instructive to look at the U.S. market, where struggling networks are unilaterally reducing their own programming requirements.

Draconian moves include returning primetime hours to affiliates, programming OTA channels like specialty services, and stripping series across the weeknight schedule, allowing producers or advertisers to supply entire blocks of programming, or introduce infomercials in peak time slots.

In times like these, it’s best to watch your neck, or buy a turtleneck.