Halfway through the fall 2008 TV season, a look at audience numbers for archrivals CTV and Global Television provides sober viewing.

Despite a few rookie prospects and stealth hits, overall viewing for Canadian conventional TV in English-speaking Canada is down year-over-year 6% to 7%, according to CTV and Global number crunchers.

Both networks downplay the viewer contraction, but it remains troubling because it comes with the overall audience erosion for returning dramas including CTV’s Grey’s Anatomy and Global’s Heroes, which are off from their former glory, especially in the U.S. market.

Add to that the disruption from the earlier Hollywood writers strike, the pre-emptive Canadian and U.S. elections, and the World Series, and it’s taken the agility of a mountain goat getting up steep rocky cliffs to program the Canadian fall season.

But beyond this year’s audience declines, the burning question is which network has done better with elusive younger viewers so prized by advertisers?

Not surprisingly, both networks claim victory.

‘We’ve been able to get [Global’s] younger viewers at their expense,’ insists Susanne Boyce, CTV president, creative, content and channels.

Year-over-year, CTV points to a 4% jump in 18-49 viewers for Grey’s Anatomy, a 15% rise for both CSI and CSI: Miami, and 8% up for the farewell season of ER, based on BBM Nielsen Media Research data. (CTV numbers take into account Sept. 22 to Oct. 19.)

Canwest’s Barb Williams, EVP content, sees the fall 2008 data differently: ‘We don’t see any evidence at all of any shifting away of the 18-49 audience from our core properties over to theirs.’

That CTV and Global disagree on the audience data is not surprising, considering they work from different assumptions.

Boyce insists she wants to reach as large an audience as possible with all CTV shows. That includes the 18-49 and the 25-54 demos, both key sellers for CTV.

‘I want to be sure there’s options for viewers, and for advertisers,’ she explains.

By contrast, Williams maintains a laser-like focus on what percentage of a broad audience skews younger in the key Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary markets, as the 18-49 demo is what Global is most keen to deliver to advertisers.

Here CTV and Global continue to play to their strengths in primetime by grooming demos at opposite ends of the age spectrum.

‘Even though they’re competitors, they’re two totally different stations,’ observes Dennis Dinga, VP and director of broadcast investments at M2 Universal.

Dinga judges Global as more of an 18-34 network, as CTV aims more at a 25-54 demo.

The result has advertisers placing dollars on Global’s younger set and sub-sets, while CTV can supply audiences to advertisers that aim their messages to the young as well as to older adults.

This strategy was reinforced during the fall 2007 season with a Punch and Judy show that saw Global issue press releases to tout its gains in the 18-49 demo as CTV viewers were apparently dying off, while CTV countered that it still enjoyed ratings supremacy.

Fast-forward a year and the picture is little changed. CTV still wears the Canadian TV ratings crown.

But CTV is also keen to dispel any notion that it’s the Geritol network by claiming to have siphoned off young viewers from Global.

An example is Wednesday nights at 8 p.m., where Global’s Bones is enjoying its best season yet, averaging just over 1.5 million viewers (2+) so far this fall. (Global numbers take into account Sept. 1 to Oct. 19.)

But while Bones wins in total viewers, CTV’s So You Think You Can Dance Canada, which uses family viewing to build an audience, wins in younger demos.

On Monday nights, CTV’s Dancing with the Stars has prevailed over Global’s Prison Break in total viewers and demos in the 8 p.m. slot. That reverses at 9 p.m., when the last half-hour of CTV’s Dancing with the Stars and Corner Gas dominate Global’s Heroes in total viewers, while Heroes prevails with younger audiences.

Even Global powerhouse House, while up 1% in total viewers (2+), is off 4% from last year in the 18-49 demo.

On the other side of the ledger, Global’s Numb3rs has bested CTV’s Without a Trace on Friday nights at 10 p.m. in younger demos, while lagging in total viewers.

But CTV, which has dominated this fall on most nights – except Tuesday, when Global wins with House, and Saturday, when CBC scores with Hockey Night in Canada – scoffs at Global’s focus on 18-49 as a ploy to spotlight strength in a schedule weaker than its own.

Of course, CTV executives further argue, Global also sells the 25-54 demo to advertisers. And CTV’s popular shows skew older because they enjoy large audiences, younger demos included.

CTV points to hits like Supernanny, Desperate Housewives, Ghost Whisperer and The Amazing Race that prevail over all comers in the 18-49 demo.

For her part, Canwest’s Williams won’t be distracted by timeslot comparisons of total viewers, which, she contends, offer advertisers little direction on where to place their bets.

Take Heroes, where 79% of the audience is 18-49, according to Canwest data.

‘[Advertisers] are interested in Heroes because they know how reliably that show will deliver that [18-49] demo,’ Williams argues.

Then there’s Sunday night, where CTV’s Desperate Housewives is through the roof in total viewers this fall in the 9 p.m. slot – but only 57% of its audience is 18-49 – again, according to Global number crunchers.

And that’s fine by Williams, who on Sunday nights showcases a Fox animated block – Family Guy, The Simpsons, King of the Hill and American Dad – to deliver a younger, male-skewing audience to advertisers.

In other words, anyone under 30 is watching Global to 10 p.m., while older audiences tend towards CTV until 10 p.m., when a younger audience might split between the Global drama Brothers and Sisters and CTV’s Law & Order: Criminal Intent.

‘If Desperate Housewives continues to do well with the older female demo on Sunday nights for CTV, that’s fine. I never expected Family Guy to suck away 50-plus women from Desperate Housewives,’ Williams says.

The continuing dogfight between CTV and Global over the relevance of the 18-49 and 25-54 demos in aligning with advertisers is instructive, because both networks lean heavily on returning favorites to drive their business.

As in past TV seasons, few rookie U.S. series have popped so far in fall 2008. Global’s 90210 on Tuesday nights – with an average 993,800 total viewers – and CTVglobemedia’s Fringe on Tuesdays on A – with an average 677,000 viewers – are rare standouts.

All of which has helped homegrown shows to shine this fall – most notably CTV’s So You Think You Can Dance Canada, with an average 1.36 million total viewers on Wednesday nights, and Flashpoint, delivering an average 1.24 million total viewers since its summer bow.

So CTV squeezes out ad dollars from Dancing with the Stars, the final season of Corner Gas, Criminal Minds, and the Law & Order and CSI franchises.

And Global has in House, Bones, Prison Break, Heroes and Survivor: Gabon its own killer shows.

But the upshot midway through the fall is, with Global having done so much to knock the relevance of 2+ numbers and tout the importance of the 18-49 demo in drawing ad dollars, it stands to lose dearly should it bleed younger viewers, as CTV claims it already has.