The Television Critics Association has canceled its January tour, which makes sense. Since the screenwriters’ talks with Hollywood producers broke down again on Friday, is there anything on TV that’s going to be worth writing about?

Time will tell for Canadian audiences. Both CTV and Global have come forward with lists of new shows due in January, and both broadcasters have assured clients that ad dollars spent will not be wasted. So what’s the big fuss? Is the strike really all that bad for Canuck broadcasters or advertisers?

‘There’s a lot of programming that’s available for broadcasters, from within North America and even from outside of North America, depending on how long this strike goes,’ says Theresa Treutler, president and CEO of the Television Bureau of Canada, though she notes ‘there’s been mention of bonus-ing or pre-compensation’ in case audiences fall short.

ZenithOptimedia president and CEO Sunni Boot isn’t as worried about the situation as she was at the end of November. With the January shows promised by CTV and Global, along with dependable hockey and news audiences, Boot says the mood among buyers at ZenithOptimedia isn’t so bad.

‘We think we’re going to be able to make it,’ she says. ‘The problem is that nothing has an exact schedule yet… We do not have a schedule from Jan. 1 to Feb. 28. We have a contingency schedule from Jan. 1 to Jan. 15. It’s being parceled out because nobody knows.’

So far, says Boot, the majority of the upcoming shows — about 75% — will have similar characteristics for media buyers. But that leaves about 25% of primetime that ZenithOptimedia’s buyers may have to ‘piece together differently.’ And given the timelines, that’s a problem.

‘I am worried in the sense that there’s going to be about 25% of programming that we’re going to have to work very, very hard to replace. And we’ll have to replace the ratings on the fly, because schedules are going to change. It’s not like we can put a whole schedule to bed. We’re going to have to revisit it on a much more stringent basis.’

OMD Toronto managing director Sherry O’Neil is less optimistic about what’s going to be on Canadian conventional TV. ‘I wouldn’t say it’s a time of panic, but if things aren’t resolved in the next few weeks, buyers will be revisiting their plans and having to advise clients about whether or not they should affect the buy,’ says O’Neil.

For OMD, January is the redo deadline. ‘We’re not quite there yet, but if the strike’s not resolved by January, we’ll all have heavy labor on our side of things. Advertisers are going to be looking for their money back if their buys are not performing, as they are already in the U.S. The overall issue is delivering our clients’ total ratings objectives in any given week. If I’ve been asked to buy 100 [gross rating points] on conventional television, with this volatility I don’t have as much confidence that I’m going to get my GRPs.’

O’Neil says it’s hard to ignore the holes that will be created in the Top 20 without shows like Grey’s Anatomy, Criminal Minds, Desperate Housewives and My Name Is Earl.

‘I think that shows like Survivor and Prison Break will do fine,’ says O’Neil. ‘The Apprentice was on the down-swing, and that will be tough. I wasn’t a big fan of Lipstick Jungle, and I don’t think it’s going to rock anyone’s world, and I don’t know where they’re placing it now. Law & Order and Nip/Tuck will get popular again. Obviously, [American] Idol fills a number of hours.’

Boot is optimistic about several new titles. ‘CTV does have some shows,’ says Boot. ‘They’ve got Jericho because they purchased the A-Channel, so that might be a good show to put in for some shows that will go into repeats.’

‘A lot depends on where they’re putting the shows. They may move some of their cable shows to prime… CTV has Bravo! and a number of stations where there may be some offerings. These could be excellent trial times in January. Viewers are willing to say, ‘Hey, let’s look at that and see what it’s like.’ They’re a little more receptive.’

‘I have more confidence on the CTV side,’ says O’Neil, ‘but I don’t have enough confidence on the CanWest side. And it just might be the level of detail that has come out. Idol fills a lot more hours on CTV than, say, Global’s Survivor at one hour.’

‘The Top 20 is going to change more dramatically than it has in the past,’ she says. ‘The total performance of conventional should be a big concern for them. Frankly, my opinion is that the specialty channels are going to benefit immensely.’

From Media in Canada