Over-the-air broadcasters in Canada will face endless repeats, a ratings slip and a backlash by viewers if the Hollywood writers strike goes long, say industry watchers, though CTV and CanWest are taking steps to soften the blow.

Only the CBC, which has little American fare on its schedule and is not tied to a U.S. supplier for its primetime fare, is likely to emerge from the current labor strife in Los Angeles unscathed. Hollywood writers walked off the job on Monday after talks with producers failed to reach an agreement.

CTV is feeling an immediate pinch with the sudden absence of late-night talkers like Late Night with Conan O’Brien and The Tonight Show with Jay Leno, which have gone dark for lack of gag writers. NBC has sent Leno and Conan into repeats, so the CTV-owned A-Channels have done the same.

‘They are at the mercy of the U.S. networks. If they run repeats, we will run repeats,’ says Florence Ng, VP of broadcast investments at Toronto-based media buyer Zenith Optimedia.

The networks here can tweak at the margins, however. The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, also now in reruns, has been moved back by CTV to 12:30 a.m., Monday to Fridays. In its place, the net is bringing TMZ, its daily entertainment magazine show, one hour forward from 1 a.m. to midnight nightly.

But as the U.S. networks react, so will the Canadians. CTV and Global should face little disruption through November sweeps and into December, when traditional Christmas programming kicks in, because the U.S. networks have stockpiled episodes of popular dramas and comedies to take them comfortably to the end of the year.

The real question is how U.S. primetime schedules, and the Canadian schedules tied to them, will fare in January and afterwards if the writers are still walking.

CTV will be happy it acquired the Super Bowl to brighten its mid-season game plan if the WGA hasn’t settled. The network will also have the benefit of American Idol, which Fox may extend to three nights beyond Tuesdays and Wednesdays, and Extreme Makeover. Global will have Survivor, which CBS may bring back sooner.

Whether Canadian TV viewers want them or not, they are likely to watch more reality series and game shows, such as ABC’s Dance War: Bruno vs. Carrie Ann, a spin-off from Dancing with the Stars, and CBS’s Regis Philbin-hosted Million Dollar Password. More reality and game shows better the odds for CTV or Global that they might snag the next Survivor or American Idol, game-changers that transform their schedules and appeal to advertisers.

Alternatively, the U.S. networks may resurrect news magazine shows like NBC’s Dateline series.

There’s also a question over how the Hollywood writers strike may affect the rollout of popular mid-season dramas like 24, seen here on Global, and Lost on CTV. The Canadian nets will be impacted if Fox or ABC delay the launch of 24 or Lost, respectively, or run what episodes they got into the can before the writers strike started, and then go into hiatus.

Barb Williams, SVP of programming and production for CanWest MediaWorks, remains sanguine, at least for now. She argues that, just as the U.S. networks have brought the Canadians a problem with the writers strike, they will eventually produce scheduling solutions.

CTV and CanWest MediaWorks will also be able to dip into their libraries if the writers strike drags on.

‘We didn’t get into the E! business with this idea in mind, but it’s in our deck of cards,’ says Williams of plans to use TV shows from the U.S.-based E! network’s catalogue for filler. Like her fellow Canadian broadcasters, the mantra is business as usual.

Likewise, CTV spokesman Scott Henderson says his network is a ‘large organization’ and can draw on programming from sister specialty channels like Discovery, Comedy Network and MuchMusic.

‘CTV has always been able to air [U.S.] cable shows like Nip/Tuck and The Sopranos,’ and could migrate such shows from its Canadian specialty services, Henderson says.

Any way you cut it, Canadians will need to get used to TV repeats, or shift to DVDs or the Internet for diversion, should the U.S. writers strike carry on into 2008.

‘Our viewers want to continue to get the shows that they are enjoying. We’re not trying to disrupt anything for our viewers, unless we have to,’ Williams says of the need to air reruns for continuity.

If anything, it’s an open question whether the Canadians’ U.S. suppliers would allow them to forego repeats of popular American shows for alternative programming.

‘There will have to be conversations about that, as we see how things unfold. No one contemplated in the original deals any high volume of repeats,’ Williams says.