When the accounting is done years from now about what impact 2006 had on the business of film and television, the year will be looked upon as one of seeding. The changes that will, over the next few years, transform the film, broadcast and digital media sectors are only just taking root as of this writing.

One of them – Bell Globemedia’s acquisition of CHUM Ltd. – is outlined in this issue of

Playback. The BGM deal has such potentially great impact on the future of the industry that we saw fit to name BGM president and CEO Ivan Fecan our 2006 Person of the Year.

But perhaps no one event will prove more fecund than the election of the Conservative government in Ottawa in January.

It should be obvious to even the most casual observer that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is developing a reputation as an agent of change. Whether recognizing Quebec’s nationhood, extending Canada’s mission in Afghanistan, or killing the tax benefits of corporations transforming to income trusts, the Harper government has shown a strong propensity to impose its will if there is a belief that such actions are ideologically the right thing to do.

This poses several interesting scenarios in the broadcast sector, particularly if the Conservative minority takes the next step and forms a majority sometime in 2007.

Some changes will be easier to make than others. With CRTC chair Charles Dalfen calling it quits, the government need not wait for another election win to appoint a reform-minded CRTC chair early in the new year – at a time when Conservatives feel the regulator is due for reform.

While Canadian Heritage Minister Bev Oda is considered a friend of the broadcasting community, that may not mean the next CRTC head shares her kinship. Oda’s boss has shown on more than one occasion that if it suits him, he has no trouble ignoring the advice of key ministers in certain top-line issues. Harper could look to a new chair who has little empathy for the plight of Canadian broadcasters facing competition from hard-to-regulate digital media forces around the globe.

The question is: how much does he care about radically reforming the CRTC – or worse, does he care about the CRTC at all? Some pundits have even predicted that the next CRTC chair will be its last.

At the same time, the CRTC is in the midst of considering several proposals regarding the broadcast landscape, including allowing conventional broadcasters to charge cable companies a fee for carriage, and whether broadcasters need a harder push toward airing more Canadian drama.

Regardless of the outcome of these hearings, we also know that any ruling by the CRTC is not the final say on the matter. Already, less than a year into its mandate, the federal government has shown that it will not hesitate to overrule a CRTC decree if it does not mesh with the Conservatives’ free-market view.

And then there is the poor old CBC. Struggling to make a mark amid flagging ratings and the drawn daggers of the media horde, the Ceeb will, in the coming Heritage review, find itself under tremendous pressure to justify $1 billion in annual federal funding – dollars the feds would dearly love to cut.

We won’t even get into the yet-to-be-renewed $100 million the feds currently provide the Canadian Television Fund.

The changes to come could be so broad, far-reaching and transformative over the next few years that either Harper or Oda would be a lock for Playback’s Person of the Year in 2007 or 2008 (or both), depending on when they really get the reform train rolling.