The CBC says it’s not concerned that the Toronto Maple Leafs – Hockey Night in Canada’s national team and ratings powerhouse – will likely miss the NHL playoffs this season.

This post-season looks to be the first since 1997/98 in which the Leafs will be left behind, which, based on historical patterns, could take away up to 50% of the Ceeb’s national audiences.

Any matchup featuring the Leafs draws large audiences. But take them out and the numbers usually drop by half a million to one million viewers.

The CBC doesn’t need the headache of lackluster playoff audiences, coming on the heels of an Olympics that saw the Canadian men’s hockey squad bounced early and a decline from 2002’s numbers. But CBC Sports executive director Nancy Lee says she’s not worried.

‘I think the perception of having the Leafs not in the playoffs being a disaster is incorrect and quite flawed,’ she says. ‘What matters for Canadian broadcasting and CBC in particular are the Canadian teams [in general]. That’s the number one driver.’

Other matchups featuring Canadian teams could help, such as a series between the Calgary Flames and the Edmonton Oilers. (The 2004 finals with the Flames delivered very strong numbers.) Similarly, the top-ranked Ottawa Senators are expected to draw increasingly well as they go deeper into the playoffs.

At Playback’s press time, the Oilers and Vancouver Canucks – representing the country’s second biggest market – were fighting for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference, meaning that another Canadian team would possibly miss the post-season.

But media buyer Dennis Dinga, a VP at M2 Universal, says if the Canucks or the Oilers get knocked out it will affect only the regional viewing numbers, not the national numbers, the way the Leafs do. He says Montreal, Ottawa and Calgary will keep people watching.

‘Canadian hockey viewers stay tuned if there’s a Canadian team playing,’ says Dinga.

‘The hockey playoffs and Stanley Cup are usually rolled right into a client’s hockey execution for the entire year. So when you put it over the whole year, CBC [hockey] had a great fall, and January, February and March audiences were great as well. So, if the Leafs don’t make it into the playoffs, does it impact the CBC in terms of delivering the audience? In the whole scheme of things, I don’t think so,’ he says.

The CBC could have to award bonus ad time, ‘but if they have to it’s not going to be significant.’

TSN and Sportsnet do not have rights to any playoff games featuring Canadian teams and will see virtually no impact either way, says Dinga. TSN carries the other NHL playoff games, while Sportsnet carries baseball.

-With files from Dustin Dinoff