There’s an old Scandinavian saying that goes, ‘There’s no such thing as bad weather, just bad coats.’

It’s something producers should keep in mind as they head to Ottawa later this month for the annual CFTPA Prime Time conference. And not just for those who recall standing in line for an hour in the bone-cracking chill of winter last year waiting to gain entry to the opening-night party on Parliament Hill. It’s also worth remembering in anticipation of what looks to be another downright nasty production year to come.

Prime Time 2004 will not feature a surplus of good-news stories. The conference will launch with the release of Profile 2004. According to CFTPA president Guy Mayson, production activity stood at $4.93 million (see story, p.22).

But the stark reality that most of our readers are dealing with is not reflected in the upcoming report. Since March 31, 2003, the last reporting date for Profile 2004, we’ve seen the industry take more hits than Jimi Hendrix. The production sector, already reeling from the collapse of international markets and the rise of cheap reality programs, faced cuts to the Canadian Television Fund, SARS, mad cow, Arnie for governor and a Canadian dollar suddenly inspired by Wagner’s The Ride of the Valkyries. Since March, the dollar has gone from US$0.67 to somewhere approaching US$0.79 at this writing.

The dollar, coupled with decreases in MOW and dramatic series production, has laid a particularly serious blow to foreign location work. Patrick Whitley, president of Dufferin Gate Productions – which serviced $141 million in foreign shooting in 2002 – tells Playback that in 2003 total service volumes were off by 30% to 40% in Ontario and 15% to 25% in B.C.

In May, we will get a better indication of the impact wrought by the past year on production as a whole when Playback releases its 16th annual Report on Independent Production. This survey, which will encapsulate the full 2003 production year, will provide the first broad view of 2003 volumes.

One thing to keep in mind – as any business person in the game for the long haul will attest – the good times are never as good as they seem and the bad times are never as bad.

More to the point, this is not yet a mature industry and such fluctuations are not uncommon. In our cover story ‘B.C. brain drain,’ Rob Egan, president and CEO of British Columbia Film, says as much. He’s speaking of the B.C. experience, but could just as easily be commenting on the production sector as a whole: ‘Perhaps we have to be cautious about expecting too much, too soon,’ he says. ‘The film and television industry… is a relatively young industry. Like other sectors of the economy, it may experience growing pains, marked by periods of rapid growth and then followed by a period of retrenchment. Year-over-year growth may be an unrealistic expectation.’

It’s a glass-half-full kind of perspective, but it rings true.

Producers who continue to look for ways to diversify and remain wary of relying on any one revenue stream will find themselves better protected until things start to warm up again.