The pieces of the puzzle are beginning to fall into place.

It wasn’t too long ago that the pundits had declared the arrival of digital channels and the accompanying audience fragmentation meant commercial production was doomed to a long and painful demise. More recently, these sourpusses have been questioning the viability of spot production now that the personal video recorder has stepped out of the shadows.

But take these two advents together and tack on software that allows advertisers to trace the viewing habits of households and profile consumers, and we could be entering a remarkable new phase in commercial production.

Indeed, while there are strong cases that the PVR and fragmentation threaten the commercial industry, there is equally credible opinion that the two working hand-in-hand could actually be its savior.

While the digitals and direct-to-home satellite providers spread viewers over hundreds of channels, making it nearly impossible to consistently find consumers with an advertiser’s message, the PVR helps narrow the spectrum. It will allow viewers to search out only the programs they want and create, in essence, their own customized primetime lineups.

While it’s true that PVR users can skip commercials on digitally stored, time-shifted programming, viewers interested in an ad because it’s well executed or, perhaps more importantly, because the brand message is actually of interest, will take time to watch the spot.

Now add the ability to profile households based on viewing patterns, and the ability to target becomes nearly pinpoint accurate.

To that end, last month, Microsoft announced that it was licensing viewer-profiling software for its set-top boxes from a company called Predictive Networks of Cambridge, MA.

Predictive’s technology allows for creating profiles of viewing habits. Viewers who sit through certain types of toy commercials rather than zap or change channels are identified as ready to receive more information on such toys next time they tune in.

So where will it all lead?

Brands that better know their audience and have an even more accurate sense of what types of consumers are watching specific types of programs or commercials, can produce advertising that is personalized or very compelling. They can then slot an ad or stream it only for those who care.

Today, because radio is so niche, it is common for brands to produce a handful of radio ads, one for every station geared to its target group. It may not be too long until budgets for that single big splashy spot are split into smaller, less expensive segments that will allow better targeted messages: five spots instead of one.

But in our march to this new age, we should never lose sight of the fact that privacy must remain at the zenith. While it is an ethical no-brainer and the laws assure it, there will always be the temptation. The technology could allow advertisers to get very close to their constituents, indeed.

But, those caught pushing too far will do themselves immense damage. The first brand to cross the line will forever be associated with Big Brother and for caring more about its profit than the rights of consumers.

No amount of well-targeted messaging will ever be able to vanquish that reputation.