Vancouver: For an industry that thrives on speculation, the movie business in Vancouver may be well into "fear fatigue" when it comes to the subject of u.s. writers and actors strikes. Will they settle? Will they walk the picket? Should I plan holidays?

Jittery volatility is the only certainty.

Mark DesRochers, b.c.’s film commissioner, calls the pre-strike-buildup time the most hot-and-cold period in his experience.

"The [fear of a] strike is causing turmoil," he says. "Shows are going up, going down, going up, going down, all depending on the availability of actors. Let’s say there is a wee bit of instability in the decision-making process."

Among the recent shows that have started prep only to stop is the DreamWorks miniseries Taken.

"It’s really up in the air," says DesRochers. "The actors are really in the driver’s seat in terms of cutting deals. We’re the innocent bystanders."

The flood of work anticipated earlier hasn’t yet materialized, although volumes compare favorably with last year’s tallies. For instance, DesRochers says Vancouver is on track to produce 15 pilots, the same number as last year when new benchmarks were set.

However, the big-ticket, $100-million features that need to be filmed in March to be wrapped in time to beat strike deadlines also haven’t taken up pace.

"We think there is more impetus to keep the bigger pictures closer to home [in l.a.]," says DesRochers, "in order to maintain greater control of the productions."

Complicating the strike issue is confusion about, for instance, what kind of reach the Screen Actors Guild has. While it shouldn’t affect Canadian shows, most regularly working Canadian actors also have sag cards. Even the Union of B.C. Performers is sending out mixed messages about how or if it will support a sag strike.

Shows such as DaVinci’s Inquest, a purely Canadian show made for a domestic broadcaster and with no u.s. sales as yet, will not be affected, even though star Nicholas Campbell has a sag card, says series creator Chris Haddock.

Should there be a protracted strike, however, u.s. broadcasters may be inclined to buy up DaVinci’s 39 episodes, admits Haddock, who is uncomfortable with the perception of opportunism. He says he isn’t marketing the show south of the border, though u.s. buyers are "sniffing around."

Another season of 13 episodes goes in June.

Lions Gate Television’s Mysterious Ways – produced primarily for pax tv and aired in Canada on ctv – should also not be affected, says executive producer Harold Tichenor, who as president of Vancouver’s Crescent Entertainment oversees Lions Gate’s Western Canadian television production.

Crescent just finished the mow The Void, is ramping up another mow, Cabin Pressure, has a pilot in prep and may bring back teen series Higher Ground, all production that should be strike-proof.

"We’re a ubcp show, not a sag show," he says of Mysterious Ways. "From an actor point of view, it’s a non-issue." Episodes are either Writers Guild of Canada or Writers Guild of America, depending on the writer. Creative executive producer Carl Binder is Canadian.

However, while nationality should protect the series, there is still a lack of certainty, admits Tichenor.

"A dual member [who holds u.s. and Canadian memberships] may make it an issue," he says. "Do we sue a performer for honoring the strike and not their contract? I don’t think we’re headed down that path."

Competition for crews in the next couple of months may be the only real issue for Canadian productions.

"Everyone is in prep," says Gerry Rutherford, business agent at IATSE Local 669, which represents camera operators. "It’ll be hard to find a crew in six weeks."

But because the studios and networks have stockpiled and in some cases dusted off their huge libraries, Rutherford expects a slower summer and has been advising members to put 20% of their incomes into a summer slush fund.

Padi Mills, production manager at u.s. syndicated series Seven Days, is more pointed in her strike speculation. "Personally, as a production manager, I’m looking forward to a strike," she says, "It’ll be a guilt-free holiday. And I think it will teach people here a lesson. They’re too used to the big paychecks, their lifestyles are high and they’ve become quite demanding. I can’t wait." *