After 10 years of false starts, plot twists involving political nepotism, acts of god, cultural loggerheads and an abundance of press conferences, a Canadian dth service is actually beaming down.

With the launch of AlphaStar and two more imminent, what remains to be seen is – will enough people buy into it?

The first pitch is the digital quality bait. And if crisp signals aren’t enough to turn consumers’ collective cranks, there’s the added allure of being able to legally elude your local cable monopoly’s billing clutches. On the downside, offering the usual Eligible Services List suspects doesn’t present the horn of plenty or the alternative status the public may expect. AlphaStar starts out with 35 video, 10 ppv and 30 music services, and plans on 120 channels available after July; the receiver, dish and one year of programming come with a price tag of $799.

Fortunately, mass conversion is not needed to support the business plans. Star Choice Television will launch 60 video and 30 audio channels on April 30 and for year one it’s anticipating 64,000 subs. Star Choice vp business development Guy Skipworth says there’s no concern at all that the market is too small. There are 10.7 million tv households (Cancom pegs 2.5 million to three million are without cable) and Star Choice will be profitable with 200,000. AlphaStar anticipates around 75,000 subscribers in the first year. ExpressVu is expected to come out afterwards, this summer or fall.

Even though microwave services and convergence are also in the cards, analysts predict the market could sustain two dth services. Once the dishes and boxes are in place, it’s an operationally efficient alternative. lmcs and mmds could be a complementary service to dth in major markets where dth is at a disadvantage to cable because it doesn’t have all the local signals; already some operational base sharing is going on.

So what does it mean to the industry beyond contributions to the production fund kitty from another distribution system? Perhaps its ultimate impact is as a wedge.

The existence of Canadian dth provides firmer ground to stand on for those trying to protect Canadian rights on bird-delivered u.s. services. AlphaStar’s David Lewis believes some of Canada’s gray- and black-market consumers will repatriate to get Canadian channels, to save money (AlphaStar packages are 40% to 60% cheaper than u.s. offerings) and to avoid gray-market hassles such as an upcoming card swap-out. Being turned off is even more common in the black market of hacked access codes. And even though the dth numbers aren’t massive, every little bit counts when you’re looking for eyeballs. Skipworth had feedback that of the new Canadian services awaiting airspace, those less cost-intensive might be able to manage a launch via dth.

With the advent of wireless, the need for flexibility is accelerating and therefore a decent relationship between dth, industry and government is needed for success. So far very little leeway has been given any of the new alternative delivery services to deliver a true alternative.

In the meantime, back to the usual dth mode in Canada, waiting to see how turned on it all becomes