Canada’s film and TV sector is facing more uncertainty than ever as Canada-U.S. trade relations spin in a rapidly-changing economic environment.

As this story was first being written, U.S. President Donald Trump had imposed punitive tariffs on most of the world, which were paused until July 9 after stock markets tumbled. With the exception of China, which negotiated its own 90-day pause on tariffs on May 12, everyone from Canadian lumberjacks to the penguins of the Heard and McDonald Islands were able to catch a breath. On June 16, at the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Alta., Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney committed to working out a trade deal between Canada and the U.S. in the next 30 days.

On May 4, a single posting from the president’s Truth Social account, decrying the “very fast death” of the U.S. film and TV industry, sent shockwaves through the international production community with its threat of “a 100% Tariff on any and all Movies coming into our Country that are produced in Foreign Lands.” (The random capitalization is courtesy of the original post.)

So what does it all mean for Canadian producers and distributors?

Before the Truth Social post, most observers felt it unlikely that U.S. tariffs would have a direct impact on Canadian creators, since their work is classified as a “service” rather than a “good.”

Noah Segal, co-president of Elevation Pictures (pictured right), says a 100% tariff would be “devastating to the business. But I don’t think it is going to happen in the way Donald Trump’s post outlines because everyone from studios and streamers, to unions and legislatures, agrees it would be apocalyptic. That level of unanimity is pretty rare.”

There is, however, a serious intent underlying Trump’s words, notes Segal. “There has been a hollowing out of production in America over the course of that last 20 years. So I do think we’ll see some kind of U.S. incentive and a push by the American government to increase production in the U.S. That will have an impact on production services worldwide – including Canada.”

Segal takes some comfort from the fact that U.S. fears about runaway production are not about “the U.S. versus Canada, but the U.S. versus Hungary, Australia, the U.K., the world. High-end productions are being shot everywhere, so if Donald Trump turns content production into a global problem that will simply increase the cost of production. And the ones who will suffer most are the U.S. companies that operate the global streaming platforms — they’ll be crushed by increased overheads.”

Even if this doesn’t come to pass, however, observers are concerned by the collateral damage caused by Trump’s rhetoric. “President Trump is creating uncertainty,” says Reynolds Mastin, president and CEO of the Canadian Media Producers Association (CMPA, pictured left). “Whether or not our sector is directly impacted by tariffs, there is anxiety at the instability he has stirred up. The risk is that his interventions will have a recessionary impact that affects investment.”

David Hancock, chief analyst, media and entertainment at the research group Omdia, agrees, noting that eroding business and consumer confidence could impact media expenditure. “It’s not easy to predict which way the economic dominos will fall,” he says. “A recession could encourage some people to spend less on streaming platforms, while others might see streaming as a low-cost alternative to other forms of entertainment. But, broadly speaking, if consumers stop spending, it could negatively impact ad revenue, and that could feed through to the volume of content being commissioned.”

As Hancock notes, part of the problem is that tariffs can have “unintended consequences.” For instance, if the U.S. does impose tariffs and Canada responds, goods imported from the U.S. for productions could increase in price, pushing up costs at a time when the industry is already reeling from inflation.

Mastin stresses, however, that there is also potential upside to the current situation, because Donald Trump’s regressive attitude towards Canada has triggered an extraordinary cultural backlash against the U.S. “I think we are witnessing a renewed love affair between Canadians and their own country,” says Mastin.

Already Canadians, under the hockey-friendly rallying cry of “Elbows up!”, are boycotting American products and cancelling trips to hot spots like Palm Springs. As for film and TV, the CMPA recently conducted a poll which found that 83% of Canadians would like to see greater investment in Canadian-made content. “That’s encouraging for our producers,” says Mastin.

According to the poll, 58% of Canadians said they would “support a political party that champions Canadian identity by backing the cultural industries.” No surprise, then, that Liberal Party leader, and now Prime Minister Carney pledged to provide a $150 million increase in funding to public broadcaster the CBC as part of his campaign.

Mastin says he hopes that the oppressive climate also plays into the CRTC’s deliberations regarding the Online Streaming Act. “It’s more important than ever that we have a domestic sector that can produce world-class content and generate real revenues.”

Segal echoes this. While concerned about the potential impact of tariffs on production services, he hopes that Trump’s antipathy to Canada encourages the federal government to back homegrown content and that the CRTC imposes a streamer levy. “Supporting Canadian production isn’t just a cultural imperative,” Segal offers. “It’s an industrial imperative. There are a lot of jobs at stake.”

One possible outcome of such a scenario, says Segal, is that “it will force Canadian producers to be better. If the streamers do end up paying a levy, they’ll expect Canadian producers to step up. They’ll want the next Squid Game or Adolescence or Schitt’s Creek, which is fine, because it means everyone wins.”

Don McDonald, president and CEO of Super Channel (pictured right), says that now is an opportune moment to fly the Canadian flag — literally, because the Maple Leaf has been introduced as part of the channel’s recent ‘Canadian, Always’ rebrand.

“We’ve long been committed to Canadian content — well before the tariff talks — and that commitment is reflected across our channels,” McDonald says.

Canadian broadcasters have tapped into national pride with new ad campaigns. In spring, Bell Media launched its “Proudly Canadian” digital and out of home campaign, promoting Crave as a Canadian- owned streaming service. CBC built on its previous “It’s a Canada Thing” branding with a campaign titled “Always Here for Canada,” reflecting on its coverage of Canadian historical events, while Corus Entertainment has campaigned for local advertisers to invest in Canadian companies over foreign-owned tech companies such as Meta, Apple or TikTok.

Muse Entertainment CEO Michael Prupas says he hasn’t seen anything like the current surge of Canadian cultural support. Like Mastin, he believes a key outcome of the current U.S./Canada fracas will be more Canadian production.

“People will have their own definitions of what exactly that entails,” says Prupas. “But the general mood suggests we will see an increased appetite for Canadian storytelling and Canadian locations.”

How transformative this can be, however, is an open question. “Few places have managed to replicate the American star system,” he says. “French-speaking Quebec has its own version, but English-speaking Canada doesn’t. Whether this can lead to an expanded Canadian star system is hard to say.”

More concrete, perhaps, are benefits to non-U.S. companies in the supply chain. Flipping the earlier observation about inflated production costs, Canadian vendors that supply domestic productions might displace U.S. vendors.

One intriguing issue to consider, says Prupas, is how “American exceptionalism might impact the world of coproductions.”

“Right now, I think there is probably a greater sympathy for international coproductions that don’t involve the U.S.,” he adds.

Christina Jennings, chairman and president of Shaftesbury (pictured left), points out that international coproduction has always been a key area for Canadian leading production firms — and she doesn’t expect that to stop.

“International partnerships have always been a focus for us,” she says. “The company has produced over 30 international coproductions — most recently, Irish Blood starring Alicia Silverstone for AMC/Acorn TV and a second season of the comedy SisterS, for Crave, RTÉ and IFC.”

A deepening of the financial crunch facing international broadcasters means coproductions can only increase in significance, observes Jennings. “We will probably see more partnerships with English-language countries over the next while.”

It’s not just English-language copros that are a focal point for producers, adds Mastin. At Series Mania, the CMPA and its French counterpart USPA (the Union Syndicale de la Production Audiovisuelle) said they would explore new paths for transatlantic content. A key driver for this is a shared concern about foreign streamers, but Mastin says the partnership reflects broad alignment on the issue of cultural sovereignty.

With granular details unavailable at press time, all bets are off when it comes to what the impact of increased U.S. protectionism will be. But even if tariffs and incentives are introduced, it’s unclear what exactly will be achieved.

While some within Canada might welcome fewer U.S. productions gobbling up resources, the reality is that the U.S. may struggle to turn the tide of runaway production. One reason is that Trump’s recent policies have made the U.S. dollar stronger vis-à-vis its Canadian counterpart — making Canada even more cost-competitive as a hub.

There are other factors to consider, however. Speaking to TVO Today, Neishaw Ali, CEO and executive producer at Spin VFX in Toronto, said a weak loonie is beneficial in the short term, but in the longer term could shrink profitability.

“Short term, it stimulates everyone, but for companies like ours in Canada we spend 40% of our operational budget buying American hardware and software to operate our businesses.”
In a similar vein, Canadian producers may find that running offices in Los Angeles is too expensive, and that reshoring to Canada is preferable.

Segal takes some solace from the stability of the Canadian system, honed over time. “Everyone wants American-style product — but that has gotten very expensive in the last 10 years. Because of Canada’s well-organized federal and state-level subsidies, and our track record of international collaboration, we are able to make commercial content we can sell to the world — including the U.S. — at a great price.

“A funding injection will be needed if things get tougher, but I’m optimistic that the system that has been built up over many years is the right remedy for a tough market.”

Christina Jennings’ photo by Anthony Fascione. Other images courtesy of Elevation Pictures, Super Channel and the Canadian Media Producers Association

A version of this story originally appeared in Playback‘s Spring 2025 issue